Eng 
Укр Andriy Dubas on Suspilne TV: inflation, currency, and impact on consumers
Andriy Dubas, President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, commented on the current inflation situation in Ukraine, its causes, and the forecast for the rest of the year on Public Radio, and also explained how citizens feel this in their daily lives.
Why has inflation risen?
As Andriy Dubas noted, inflationary pressure in 2025 was caused by a combination of several factors. Among them was the introduction of new tariffs and duties on fuel and lubricants, alcohol, and tobacco at the beginning of the year. This automatically affected the final price of goods.
An additional factor was the weakening of the hryvnia: in the summer, there is traditionally an increase in the dollar and euro exchange rates. In addition, as part of currency liberalization, the National Bank is gradually lifting restrictions that have been in place since the start of the full-scale invasion. For example, the purchase of currency for the payment of dividends and external loans was permitted.
The poor harvest of 2024 also had a negative impact. All this together led to inflation of 12% at the end of 2024 and an acceleration to almost 16% in May 2025, which is the highest figure since the beginning of the year.
Is there a chance for a decline?
The AUB president emphasized that inflation cannot be reduced instantly: it is a gradual process that requires monetary decisions. The key instrument is the National Bank's discount rate, which is currently maintained at 15.5%. Raising it allows the economy to cool down and curb price growth. At the same time, according to Andriy Dubas, inflation can be expected to slow down in the second half of 2025: “Starting in August, we will be comparing figures with the very high numbers of 2024. Therefore, even with inertia and against the backdrop of the NBU's measures, we will see a decline to 8–10% annual inflation.” According to the latest forecasts by the National Bank itself, this figure could be 8.2% by the end of the year.
What do consumers feel?
Explaining how inflation affects the daily expenses of Ukrainians, Andriy Dubas noted that citizens primarily notice changes in the prices of food products (vegetables, meat, milk), as well as fuel. At the same time, the perception of inflation may differ from official data:
Andriy DubasPresident AUB
”
«Consumers react immediately to price increases, but with skepticism to price decreases. This is natural. At the same time, it is important to remember that the consumer price index covers a wide range of goods, each of which has its own weight of influence». — said Andriy Dubas, President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
He paid particular attention to the impact of currency fluctuations. While agricultural products are less sensitive to the devaluation of the hryvnia, imported fuel is directly dependent on the exchange rate. At the beginning of 2025, the dollar and the euro began to behave differently due to external factors, in particular political decisions in the US, which led to a record rise in the euro exchange rate to 48 UAH.
Inflation in Ukraine in 2025 is the result of several economic and regulatory factors. Despite the difficult situation, the measures taken by the National Bank have already begun to stabilize the situation. According to Andriy Dubas, the expected decline in inflation in the second half of the year is a realistic forecast. At the same time, prices for everyday goods remain the main indicator for citizens, so open analysis and explanation of the reasons for the changes are critical to maintaining confidence in the financial system.
