AUB News

Against the backdrop of recent economic events in the world, related to changes in US customs policy, as well as the intensification of the search for ways to end the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Ukrainian banking sector remains stable and predictable. This opinion was expressed by Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.

According to the banker, events in the world are noticeably "accelerating": we are talking not only about the changing customs strategy of the United States, which has already led to a temporary change in investment priorities (in particular, active diversification of financial risks by global financial groups and a short-term "escape" from the dollar to the euro and other currencies, and investment in gold), but also about a change in the situation of world oil prices.

 

 

“Many economists have already rushed to predict a new powerful global economic crisis, which one way or another can affect all corners of the world. However, as we see, “customs vicissitudes” can change quite quickly — and it all depends on the decisions of state leaders and the depth of analysis of possible short- and long-term consequences. It is extremely important for Ukraine that economic disputes, especially between our partners in the US and the EU, are minimized. After all, during the three years of war, we have relied on their support in many respects: we are talking about financial assistance, which allows us to overcome a significant gap between budget revenues and expenditures, as well as “maintain order”, protecting the country from the aggressor,” Mammadov noted.

 

 

 

 

At the same time, as the expert emphasized, the search for an effective format for sustainable peace is currently underway, which can also significantly affect the development of the domestic economy and the banking sector in particular.

“In part, the conclusion of a strategic resource agreement between Ukraine and the United States can be considered as an economic step on the path to peace. At the same time, much will depend on whether it will be possible to agree on a ceasefire for at least 30 days — and with what practical consequences. War is exhausting. We realize that none of the partner countries will finance us indefinitely. And responsibility for economic reforms is entirely our internal task. War is an obstacle to the normal development of the economy, because it absorbs resources. Therefore, the cessation of active hostilities must be perceived as a vital necessity for the state,” the banker said.

Serhiy Mamedov also emphasized that the further development of the banking sector currently depends on several important strategic factors:

• the effectiveness of the NBU's monetary strategy aimed at strengthening the hryvnia, curbing inflation, maintaining exchange rate stability, and creating conditions for the development of deposit and loan programs;
• the development of state lending programs that stimulate the activity of small and medium-sized businesses;
• the general condition of key sectors of the economy - the agro-industrial complex, the defense industry, and construction.

The expert noted that for three years now, against the backdrop of wartime circumstances, citizens have been asking similar questions: “What will happen to the hryvnia?”, “Is it worth buying currency?”, “Will the banking system withstand the war?”, “Will a ‘bank collapse’ begin?”, “What about blocking cards — is there any point in closing accounts?”

To this, Serhiy Mamedov replies: “Ukrainian banks currently have a sufficient margin of safety to avoid negative scenarios. Forecasts are moderately positive. In the next 2–3 months, monetary policy is unlikely to undergo significant changes, since the inflation peak has almost been overcome. Therefore, the development of deposits and lending will continue, the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain stable. Moderate exchange rate fluctuations should be expected, but without sharp shocks. The NBU is implementing a strategy of managed flexibility — and this means that there will be no “earthquakes” on the foreign exchange market. In the coming month, the official dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within 41.4–42.2 UAH/$”.

He also recalled that thanks to the monetary decisions of the NBU, the highest rates on hryvnia deposits since 2023 are currently being fixed — up to 17% per annum. Banks are also more actively developing partner loan programs for small and medium-sized businesses with rates no higher than 19–20%.

“There are not even hints of crisis phenomena at the moment. The banking sector remains strong and reliable. People are in no hurry to withdraw funds — on the contrary, the monthly growth in the number of depositors is about 2%. So, despite the uncertainty and partial economic dependence on partners, the banking system is maximally protected from war risks,” the expert assured.

Regarding the new restrictions on card transfers that will come into effect on June 1, Mammadov noted that these are necessary measures to combat fraud, and they are unlikely to affect the development of banking services.

“Only in 3–5% of cases do citizens complain about problems related to card limits. However, in most cases, the situation can be resolved quickly — if a person can confirm the source of income, the limit is revised in their favor. Moreover, since the Memorandum between banks on combating fraud came into effect, the number of new card accounts has even increased — within 1–2% each month... Despite economic and geopolitical swings, the situation in the banking sector will remain stable and predictable in the coming months. The banking market is strong and resilient to possible new challenges,” Serhiy Mamedov concluded.