AUB News

Vitaliy Romanchukevich on the hryvnia outlook, NBU reserves, and cooperation with the IMF on Ukrainian Radio's live broadcast

First Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Vitaliy Romanchukevich said in the Ukrainian Radio studio that Ukraine will end 2025 with currency stability, and the key factors for the hryvnia exchange rate in 2026 will remain the course of military operations and the level of external financial support.

“It was a difficult year, but it was fairly stable in terms of the exchange rate, especially against the dollar. Fluctuations were within the forecasts made by both the National Bank and the government,” he said.

According to Vitaliy Romanchukevich, the euro's advance is primarily due to external factors and global processes.

"This is a cross-rate issue. The dollar weakened against the euro due to the US's external economic policy, particularly its tariff policy. Therefore, the euro has strengthened, and this has been mathematically reflected in exchange rates in Ukraine," he explained.

Commenting on the prospects for 2026, the first vice president of the AUB drew attention to Ukraine's record level of international reserves.

“As of early December, gold and foreign exchange reserves amounted to $54.7 billion. This is an unprecedented level. In fact, Ukraine can finance more than five months of critical imports from these reserves. This is a serious safety cushion for smoothing out exchange rate fluctuations,” he stressed.

He recalled that in the 2026 budget, the government set an average exchange rate of 45.7 hryvnia per dollar, which indicates expectations of moderate devaluation.

“We see that the state is planning for some devaluation at the end of the year. It may be wave-like, with periods of both weakening and strengthening of the hryvnia. But provided that donor support is maintained and there are no sharp escalations on the front, there should be no significant jumps,” Vitaliy Romanchukevich emphasized.

He separately emphasized the importance of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund as a reputational anchor for the country.

“Ukraine has never gone so far and so deep into the IMF program. This shows that the Fund is ready to work with us in the long term, and on our part, that the state is fulfilling its commitments,” the expert noted.

According to the AUB vice president, the IMF program is a signal to other international partners.

“Even if the IMF's funding volumes do not seem large, they are extremely important in terms of trust. If there is a program with the IMF, there will be more cooperation with other donors. If there is no program, there will be less cooperation and the financial balance will deteriorate,” he stressed.

Commenting on discussions surrounding currency policy and IMF recommendations, Vitaliy Romanchukevich emphasized that the National Bank operates under a managed flexibility regime.

"The key word between the concepts of ‘floating exchange rate’ and ‘managed floating’ is ‘managed’. The National Bank has the right and the ability to intervene to avoid sharp fluctuations and panic in the market," he said.

The banker also advised Ukrainians to take a balanced approach to saving money and to use various financial instruments.

“The best approach is diversification. Keep some of your funds in the national currency for everyday needs, invest some in government securities, and keep some in foreign currency,” said Vitaliy Romanchukevich.

According to him, Ukrainians have become more financially literate in recent years and are more actively using domestic savings instruments.

“Domestic government bonds are often more profitable for individuals than deposits today. This is a positive trend and evidence of growing confidence in the financial system,” summarized the First Vice President of the AUB.