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Укр Inflation, macrostability and IMF support: assessments of AUB President Andriy Dubas
In April 2025, annual inflation in Ukraine increased to 15.1%. This was reported by the National Bank of Ukraine. The main factors accelerating inflation were: a poor harvest, an increase in the cost of alcoholic and tobacco products, as well as an increase in business costs for labor.
In particular, prices for raw food products increased by 22.2% year-on-year. The most expensive items were flour, cereals, borscht vegetables, and fruits.
Against this background, the International Monetary Fund predicts a slowdown in the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2025–2026 to 2–3% with a possible gradual recovery in the medium term. At the same time, a gradual decrease in inflation to 7% is expected in the coming years.
President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Andriy Dubas commented on the situation and outlined the prospects on the Noviny Live TV channel. In his opinion, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates resilience thanks to the support of an international coalition of partners, which ensures financial stability even in wartime.
“As of June 2025, the volume of contracted international assistance for Ukraine exceeded 55 billion US dollars. These are funds from IMF, EU programs, frozen Russian assets and other sources,” the AUB President noted.
Regarding inflationary pressure, the AUB President emphasized that a number of factors caused its strengthening in 2024. Among them: an increase in excise duties, the NBU’s soft currency policy, a reduction in export revenues due to crop failures, as well as business demand for currency. In response, the National Bank was forced to raise the discount rate to 15.5%.
“The dynamics of inflation growth are already slowing down. According to our estimates, by the end of the year the inflation index may decrease to 8–10%,” he added.
Special attention was paid to the issue of gold and foreign exchange reserves during the broadcast. Andriy Dubas explained that the use of the National Bank's reserves is a tool for macroeconomic stabilization, and not direct financing of the budget or military needs. Reserves support the stability of the foreign exchange market and strengthen investor confidence.
Ukraine's cooperation with the International Monetary Fund was also discussed. Despite comments on certain obligations, in particular regarding the reform of the Bureau of Economic Security and personnel appointments in the customs service, Ukraine has already undergone 8 reviews of the IMF program - which is a record indicator in the practice of Ukrainian-Fund relations.
“This indicates deep and systematic cooperation, as well as the gradual implementation of reforms even under martial law,” the AUB President emphasized.
More details: https://youtu.be/2hFPHfhf_lc
