AUB News

An increase in the discount rate to 15.5% and a sharp increase in the rate on 3-month deposit certificates to 19%, on the one hand, can significantly strengthen the hryvnia, "press" inflation, extend the period of minimal exchange rate changes in the foreign exchange market and renew the attractiveness of hryvnia deposits. On the other hand, to maintain interest rates on loans, banks are focusing mainly on participation in government programs, the development of energy lending and joint credit programs with car dealers, manufacturers/suppliers of basic business tools, however, these areas are less sensitive to an increase in interest rates. This opinion was expressed by Serhiy Mamedov, Vice-President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.

According to the banker, in the second quarter, the main factors influencing the development of the banking product are:
1) The effectiveness of the NBU's monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation and strengthening the hryvnia (it is possible that the National Bank may act according to the situation, if necessary, above the discount rate).

2) Economic development in wartime conditions: from strategic industries (military-industrial complex, agricultural complex, mechanical engineering, construction, etc.) to the development of small and medium-sized businesses.

3) The NBU's strategy in the foreign exchange market is aimed at minimizing the risks of sharp exchange rate changes.

4) International and domestic preconditions / features of the end of the war in Ukraine.

5) The course of the war: counteraction to the enemy at the front and overcoming the consequences of the damage caused by massive missile and drone attacks.

6) Global economic conditions: the situation on stock markets, the consequences of new tariffs introduced by the USA, inflation in leading countries of the world, etc.

7) Development of Ukrainian exports and the possibility of replenishing international currency reserves.

“According to forecasts, inflation will remain significant in the second quarter, but it will not be extremely critical for the country's economy, then the National Bank may demonstrate a small number of effective countermeasures to increase its decline in the second half of the year,” the banker emphasized.

Foreign exchange market

In the second quarter, the risk on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market remains stable. Thus, the monetary measures of the NBU, which affect the “strength” of the hryvnia, according to Serhiy Mamedov, will release the demand for currency, and therefore the National Bank can reduce the volume of currency interventions to maintain the balance between demand and supply.

“In the second quarter, the economy on the foreign exchange market will be more or less predictable: the National Bank will monitor the market, and at the same time, monetary measures with the current strategy of “managed flexibility” can minimize current exchange rate fluctuations,” the expert explains.

without monetary changes and the historical regime of the effectiveness of “managed flexibility”, the production factor that may affect the currency market, according to the expert, is the excess of the US dollar along with the increase in the role of other reliable currencies (for example, the Swiss franc, the Chinese pound sterling) and the situational orientation of investors to the precious metals market, the prices of which have reached their achievements. maxima.

"The introduction of a new US tariff may cause a situational weakening of the dollar. It is worth noting that neither the dollar nor the euro is threatened with a systemic “collapse”, the latter currencies are quite strong, and their value is supported by the role of the US and the EU in the global economy," explains Sergey Mamedov.

He expects that in the second quarter the exchange rate corridor of the official rate will average 41.8-42.8 UAH / $. Thus, from the beginning of the year to July, the official dollar rate will increase by a maximum of 1.8%.

"At the moment, it is difficult to predict the delay at the front and the prospects for the end of the war. In addition, the enemy's cunning is limitless, which greatly complicates the analysis of the damage caused to society, the economy, infrastructure, etc. At the same time, based on the current time, we can somewhat reassure citizens: currently there are no reasons that could force them to rush headlong and buy up dollars or euros. Let's not forget that the NBU, as the main player in the foreign exchange market, pursues a fairly balanced and effective policy, and in case of need/threat, is ready to promptly intervene, take greater measures, which makes it impossible to make any sudden and negative manifestations," the head of GLOBUS BANK emphasized.

Loans

The bank drew attention to the fact that the change in discount rates to 15.5% should significantly strengthen the hryvnia and reduce the growth of consumer prices. At the same time, the costs involved in the development of credit programs will become more expensive, however, the stricter credit conditions do not apply to a number of state programs for the development of small and medium-sized businesses, energy lending, as well as the “eOselya” mortgage program.

“The size of discount rates is clearly calculated and balanced, because, in addition to the “fight” against inflation, the National Bank has greatly increased the need to maintain a balance between the development of lending and deposits. conditions. It is expected that the increase in rates under partner programs will be minimal and will not exceed 1 percentage point compared to the rates that have been in effect since December 2024,” Serhiy Mamedov emphasized.

According to the forecast, in the second quarter of its lending structure may temporarily change. He does not exclude that partner programs for car loans, small and medium-sized business loans, and energy loans account for more than 50% of the total number of loans issued by banks.

Regarding the development of lending under state programs, according to the bank's expectations, the number of loans under them may increase, compensating for some decrease in "commercial" lending.

"Under the conditions of new lending rates, state credit programs may increase significantly. It is quite possible that the number of loans issued under state programs may compensate for the "gaps" in other loans. An important condition is their stable financing by the state," notes the eyes of GLOBUS BANK.

Deposits

Sergiy Mammadov recalled that from April 4, the National Bank increased the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit to 19%, which stimulates banks to actively attract hryvnia deposits.

"In the second quarter, inflation may amount to 13-15% year-on-year (in monthly terms - about 1-1.5%), and a period of greater exchange rate stability is expected on the foreign exchange market. At the same time, citizens have a good opportunity not only to save their own funds, but also to receive additional income from deposits," he said.

According to the bank, in the near future, the average rates, depending on the term of the funds:

• Ultra-short deposits for a period of 3-6 months - 12.5-13% per annum.
• Deposits for a period of 6-9 months - 16% per annum.
• Deposits for 9-12 months - 14-15% per annum.
• Deposits for 1 year and more - 16% per annum.

At the same time, how to approve this deposit, the most popular will be deposits with a term of 6-9..., as well as for 1 year, which makes it possible to receive a passive profit of 4-5%, and the maximum rates for such bonuses, taking into account the offers, can be reduced to 17% per annum.

 

"In another quarterly situation in Ukraine, it depends on a number of items that still remain difficult to predict: this is the "road map" and the conditions for ending the war, the pace of economic development in wartime, the volume of military-technical and financial assistance, etc. Such uncertainty due to the war is and is added to the main "denominator" that should divide all current forecasts. At the same time, the country is extremely noted: social unity and cohesion in the fight against the enemy. Victory is not a result, but a process of important and daily actions to achieve it," Serhiy Mamedov concluded.