AUB News

Although the increase in electricity tariffs, the expected July increase in excise taxes on fuel, and possible difficulties in business operations due to power outages may put inflationary pressure, inflation will remain fairly moderate until the end of the summer.

Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, told Channel 5 .

According to his forecast, the devaluation of the hryvnia will be almost zero in the summer, and the dollar will fluctuate within the "corridor" of UAH 40-41.

"The National Bank is the main player in the foreign exchange market: it is currently operating a 'managed flexibility' regime that prevents a sharp hryvnia collapse. In addition, according to the regulator's forecasts, the situation in the Ukrainian economy will remain within the previously announced projections until the end of the year. That is, in the second half of the year, inflation may accelerate to a maximum of 6%," the banker said.
The expert spoke in detail about the development of lending to the energy sector as one of the most urgent areas for the country in times of war.

According to him, energy recovery and energy independence are currently among the priorities of the Lending Strategy recently adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers. In addition, some of the banks that are actively developing lending have signed a Memorandum on the development of energy loans, which stipulates uniform lending conditions, the development of consortium lending (when a large loan is divided among several banks) and the creation of conditions for a significant reduction in interest rates.

"Regulations are gradually being improved, and incentives are being introduced for energy loans. In addition, some banks are already implementing their own preferential lending programs for the purchase of energy-saving equipment, repair of existing equipment, and creation of new energy generation at enterprises. Under such loan programs, interest rates are 10-20% lower than the market average. In addition, let's not forget about the 5-7-9 program of preferential lending for small and medium-sized businesses, which has already been extended to cover the energy needs of entrepreneurs, and compensation of interest and part of the loan amount for condominiums under special programs from local authorities," the banker emphasized.

According to the expert, the main place in energy lending belongs to programs for the population: lending to condominiums and housing cooperatives under the Energodom and Grindim programs from the Energy Efficiency Fund, which allow to receive compensation of up to 70% for the purchase of energy-saving equipment for apartment buildings (primarily heating systems), as well as to return up to ⅓ of the costs of installing solar power plants and heat pumps.

"All the conditions are being created for Ukraine to become a truly energy-independent and energy-efficient country, which can become the basis for rapid post-war economic growth," the expert said.
Answering the question whether the banking system is threatened by energy supply difficulties, he reminded that more than 70% of bank branches are connected to the Power Banking system, which allows citizens to use all banking services without any obstacles and receive the full range of services.

The expert noted that currently there are almost no problems with ATMs and payments with bank cards in stores. Therefore, there is no need to withdraw the entire amount from the cards. The banker is convinced that most citizens know that power outages do not lead to downtime in shops and supermarkets, as small and medium-sized businesses have adapted to new challenges quite quickly.

According to him, the recent rolling blackouts have not affected the behavior of citizens globally, there is no excessive cash rush or any abnormal cash withdrawal movements: currently, cash is needed only in case of force majeure, but in the equivalent of up to 10% of the available funds on the card.

"Despite the ongoing hostile attacks on the energy system, the Ukrainian banking system is sufficiently protected and prepared for possible power outages. That is why citizens can be confident that possible blackouts will not significantly affect the work of banks," summarized Sergiy Mamedov.