AUB News

On April 24, the President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Andriy Dubas analyzed the recent weakening of the hryvnia and predicted its strengthening in the coming weeks.

During the discussion of the situation on the foreign exchange market, Andriy Dubas noted that the uncertainty regarding Ukraine's receipt of international aid from November 2023, as well as the seasonal volatility of the exchange rate, became the main prerequisites for a certain weakening of the hryvnia.
The President of AUB stressed that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) actively uses interventions in the foreign exchange market to mitigate exchange rate fluctuations hryvnias These interventions, carried out by buying or selling foreign currency for hryvnias, help to stabilize the exchange rate and protect the Ukrainian economy from external shocks.
Andriy Dubas recommended to Ukrainians , who have savings in dollars or hryvnias, do not make sharp movements in the market, since short-term exchange rate fluctuations are not significant. He also recommended diversifying savings in different currencies and assets, in particular in bonds of the domestic government loan, in order to minimize risks. hryvnias for the long term. He noted that thanks to international assistance and the efforts of the National Bank of Ukraine, stabilization of the exchange rate is expected.
Andrii Dubas noted that the vote of the House of Representatives of the US Congress on April 20 in favor of aid to Ukraine led to a strengthening of the hryvnia by 20 kopecks. The head of AUB expects further strengthening of the hryvnia during the next week, based on the growth of Ukraine's gold and currency reserves to 43 billion dollars from 37 billion at the beginning of the year.
President of AUB explained that the US aid is not only a signal of support, but also real funds that will help the government of Ukraine pay for budget expenses. A higher exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar is beneficial for the budget, because more hryvnias are received when converting the currency.
Andrii Dubas emphasized that the Government does not set the dollar exchange rate, it the National Bank does. However, he did not rule out the possibility of "situational use" of the exchange rate by the Government for better implementation of the budget. in 2022, state budget revenues fell significantly, and defense spending increased. To cover the budget deficit, the National Bank issued an additional 600 billion hryvnias, which caused the currency to weaken. International macro-financial assistance, according to Andriy Dubas, helps cover this deficit and stabilize the exchange rate.
Regarding the euro exchange rate, the head of AUB explained that the pair of euro- the dollar has its own correlation and does not directly depend on the hryvnia exchange rate. The value of the euro and dollar is regulated by the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank, respectively.
In general, the president of AUB expressed an optimistic forecast regarding the hryvnia exchange rate. He expects it to strengthen in the coming weeks thanks to international aid. However, Andriy Dubas noted that the exchange rate will depend on the situation on the currency market and the course of the war.

The full version of the interview with the president of AUB is available at link on the website of Ukrainian Radio.