Expert opinion

Despite the war, Ukrainian banks are demonstrating stability, and entrepreneurs are showing a willingness to develop even in difficult conditions. According to the results of the third quarter of 2025, lending standards remained relatively stable, and a slight easing of requirements for small and medium-sized businesses is expected in the fourth quarter.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey of banks and business leaders conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine.

Banks remain stable, businesses cautiously optimistic
According to the NBU, 69.6% of banks reported that requirements for SMEs had not changed. Another 21.7% of banks noted a slight easing of standards, and 8.7% reported a slight increase in requirements.

“Banks have learned to operate in a state of constant uncertainty. Now, instead of freezing their loan portfolios, they are taking targeted action—supporting clients with a solid reputation and a clear business model. This is allowing the market to gradually recover," explains Dilara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department at the Financial Pulse Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.

Most banks describe their corporate lending pricing policy as stable, although about a third of respondents reported a slight increase in rates, particularly for SMEs.

Entrepreneurs expect softer conditions, large companies — stability

According to the survey, 70% of managers of small and medium-sized enterprises did not experience any changes in access to credit, and only 9–12% noted a certain easing.
For large companies, the situation looks even more stable: 83% of banks did not change their standards, and only 4% reported a decrease.

“Large businesses today have less need for short-term loans—they are focused on maintaining working capital and preparing for recovery. Small and medium-sized businesses, on the other hand, are looking for opportunities for development right now, so they expect flexibility and faster decisions from banks,” Mustafaeva notes.

In the fourth quarter, 34.8% of banks predict an easing of requirements for SMEs, while only 8.3% predict an easing for large companies.

Consumer lending and mortgages are reviving
There has also been a moderate easing of standards in the retail lending segment. This was noted by 31.8% of banks in relation to consumer loans and 25% in relation to mortgages.

“After a certain decline, demand for mortgages is beginning to return, but mainly due to the state program ‘єОселя’ and more stable expectations on the currency market. In the consumer segment, the gradual growth of incomes and confidence in the financial system plays a key role,” explains the expert at “Financial Pulse.”

Demand for loans: the agricultural sector leads the way

Over the next 12 months, only a third of enterprises (33.3%) plan to take out loans, but among large companies, this figure reaches 45.9%.
Enterprises in the agricultural sector show the greatest willingness to borrow (51.1%), followed by the processing industry (43.6%) and trade (39.4%).
The main deterrents remain high interest rates (47.7%), the availability of alternative sources of financing (41.6%), and excessive collateral requirements (29.9%).

"Businesses, especially medium-sized ones, are not afraid of risk today, but they want predictability. If interest rates fall and the process of obtaining a loan becomes simpler, the volume of borrowing will increase significantly," predicts Mustafayeva.

Portfolio quality remains stable

19% of banks reported a slight increase in credit risk in the third quarter, but 81% saw no change.
In the fourth quarter, 73% of banks expect the quality of the corporate portfolio to remain stable, and only 15% expect a slight deterioration.
Regarding loans to households, 56% of banks predict stability, 36% predict deterioration, and 8% predict improvement.
At the time of the survey, 65.3% of enterprises assessed their financial condition as satisfactory, 15.1% as good, and 19.6% as poor. Small companies face the most problems (27.3%), but most expect stability over the next year.

Businesses are waiting for peace to begin recovery

The Ukrainian banking sector remains flexible and confident, while businesses remain committed to growth despite the risks. Although lending rates are still moderate, the market is gradually recovering, laying the foundation for economic growth after the end of the war.
Among the key constraints on business development, apart from the war, businesses cite a shortage of workers (46%), high energy and raw material prices, and insufficient demand.

“Ukrainian businesses demonstrate a unique ability to survive and adapt. But a real breakthrough will only be possible after the situation in the country stabilizes — when energy supplies, logistics, and raw material supplies cease to be daily challenges. After that, lending will become the main driver of economic recovery,” concludes Dilara Mustafayeva.

The full text of the analytical review by the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse” is available at the link.

Reference:

The Financial Pulse Center for Economic Research and Forecasting is a non-governmental organization established on March 2, 2015, with the aim of bringing together participants and experts in the Ukrainian financial market to develop and improve it.

The Center's activities will contribute to the following goals:
Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market, eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development
Increasing the transparency of financial institutions
Developing new market instruments and mechanisms, including through the introduction of best international practices
Improving the financial literacy of the population
Promoting economic reforms, including through financial decentralization
Promoting the development of entrepreneurship, etc.

Center website: http://finpuls.com/
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