Financial sector news

According to international trading platforms, the spot price of gold (XAU/USD) reached $4,689–4,690 per ounce on January 19, and rose 1.4% to $4,663 per ounce during trading in Singapore.

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing even higher volatility: quotes rose by about 3% to $94 per ounce.
Key growth factors
Analysts attribute the market dynamics to the so-called “double shock.”

On the one hand, financial markets are reacting to news of a criminal investigation into US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has heightened investor doubts about the stability of the dollar and the independence of US monetary policy.
On the other hand, new trade tariff threats from the US against the European Union related to Greenland issues have caused capital to flow out of risky assets into “safe havens.”

International financial institutions' forecasts for gold prices

Leading investment banks remain positive about the future dynamics of gold prices.
J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a price increase to $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, noting consistently high demand from central banks, which may purchase around 755 tons of gold during the year.
Goldman Sachs sets a target level of $4,900 per ounce, noting the possibility of further growth in the event of capital flows from bonds and ETFs into physical gold.

Morgan Stanley believes that even if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, macroeconomic factors (a weaker dollar and expectations of lower interest rates) will keep the price in the $4,500–4,800 range.
According to Forex.com estimates, technical resistance is located near $4,770, which, if broken, could open the way to the psychological mark of $5,000 per ounce.

The situation with gold and foreign exchange reserves in Ukraine

As for Ukraine, despite the war in the country and record demand for imported goods, the National Bank of Ukraine is finding resources to systematically replenish its gold and foreign exchange reserves.

This was stated on Ukrainian Radio by Andriy Dubas, president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks

The reserves are replenished primarily thanks to international aid, which amounts to about $42 billion per year. These funds are received by the government in foreign currency, which is exchanged for hryvnia at the NBU, allowing the regulator to accumulate currency and gold.

Even taking into account the huge costs of imports, the state treasury ends up with a surplus of $4-5 billion every year. In fact, these funds are already becoming a real annual increase in our reserves.

If reserves amounted to $27 billion by 2022, then if the current dynamics are maintained (+ $5 billion annually), this figure could grow by almost $20 billion in four years.

The existence of such a significant financial “cushion” allows the National Bank of Ukraine to adhere to a balanced exchange rate policy. The regulator does not fix the exchange rate at a single mark and avoids the unjustified use of gold and foreign exchange reserves, while retaining the ability to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the currency market," Andriy Dubas emphasized.