Financial sector news

The National Bank predicts that by 2027, economic recovery will accelerate to 2.8%. The main factors driving growth will be increased harvests, active investment in the country's reconstruction, and enhanced development of the defense sector. This is one of the main conclusions of the NBU's October Inflation Report with an updated forecast for 2025–2027.

Other important points in the NBU report:
🔹 Inflation will decline, but pressure on prices will remain.
Food supply will continue to hold down prices, but businesses will face high energy and labor costs, as well as a gradual increase in administratively regulated tariffs. The NBU's inflation forecast: 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and 5% in 2027. The NBU's monetary policy, aimed at supporting public interest in hryvnia savings and currency market stability, will also contribute to lower inflation.

🔹 Foreign aid will cover the budget deficit without issuing money.
The NBU expects $51.5 billion in foreign aid this year, over $45 billion next year, and $39 billion in 2027. This will allow international reserves to be maintained at a sufficient level — at the end of this year, they may grow to $53.6 billion.

🔹 The labor shortage is decreasing: unemployment will decline and wages will rise.
Demand for workers remains high, and the labor market situation is gradually improving. Unemployment is forecast to fall to around 9% in 2027. Real wages: around +6% in 2025 and +4–5% in 2026–2027 each year.

🔹 The forecast is based on a gradual normalization of conditions.
It takes into account the consequences of increased shelling and destruction, increased defense spending in 2025, and the continued need for significant external financing throughout the period.

This time, the thematic inserts of the NBU report analyze regional differences in inflation, the reasons for the widening current account deficit, and the external stability of Ukraine's economy.