Financial sector news

The National Bank of Ukraine released an updated macroeconomic forecast during a press briefing by the Board on monetary policy decisions.

Inflation is slowing down
Consumer inflation continues to decline and is approaching the 5% target over the forecast horizon. In September, it stood at 11.9% y/y, and the same trend continued in October. This will be facilitated by good vegetable and grain harvests, currency market stability, and monetary policy measures aimed at supporting demand for hryvnia assets. According to the NBU's forecast, inflation will fall to 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reach 5% at the end of 2027.

GDP will grow slowly
The Ukrainian economy continues to grow, but the pace remains moderate due to the consequences of the war — primarily energy shortages and labor shortages. Taking these factors into account, the NBU has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9%. A gradual acceleration is expected in the following years: 2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.

International support remains a key factor

The regulator notes that international aid remains sufficient to finance the budget deficit without resorting to borrowing and to maintain adequate international reserves. By the end of the year, Ukraine expects to receive another $15 billion. Further financing is projected, in particular through a reparations loan based on frozen Russian assets.

The main risk is war

The NBU emphasizes that the war, its intensity, and scale remain the main risk to price stability and economic development. Other risks include a possible deterioration in external conditions and increased volatility in global financial markets. At the same time, the National Bank does not rule out positive scenarios if the international community strengthens its military and financial support for Ukraine and contributes to the establishment of a just peace.