Financial sector news

On October 30, the National Bank of Ukraine held an online meeting with the heads of Ukrainian companies participating in business expectations surveys. Such regular communications enable businesses to receive answers to pressing questions, professional explanations of the NBU's decisions and plans, and provide feedback.

“We sincerely thank businesses for participating in NBU surveys. This is an extremely important source of data that we take into account when discussing monetary policy decisions and other areas of the NBU's activities,” said First Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk, opening the meeting.
The event brought together 129 representatives of 120 enterprises from various sectors of the economy and most regions of the country. The program covered a wide range of topics:

• the current state of the economy and the NBU's updated macro forecast;
  
• monetary and exchange rate policy;
  
• international cooperation;
  
• progress in currency liberalization;
  
• insurance of military risks.

Economy and macro forecast

Inflation in Ukraine continues to decline after a temporary spike. In September, annual consumer price growth slowed to 11.9%. At the same time, fundamental inflationary pressure remains high due to high business costs for energy resources and labor.
According to the NBU's forecast, inflation will gradually decline to 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and to the target level of 5% at the end of 2027. This will be facilitated by monetary policy aimed at maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia assets and the stability of the currency market.
Economic growth continues, although it remains limited by the consequences of the war — energy constraints, infrastructure destruction, and labor shortages. The NBU revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9%, expecting it to accelerate to 2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
Monetary policy

In October, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, taking into account increased inflationary risks due to massive shelling of energy infrastructure and increased budgetary needs. Monetary conditions remain tight enough to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia savings and curb inflation, but at the same time do not block the development of lending and the economy.
According to the forecast, the cycle of lowering the discount rate may begin in the first quarter of 2026, but its pace will depend on the balance of risks. If they intensify, the NBU is ready to postpone the rate cut; conversely, a weakening of risks will signal a softening of policy.

International cooperation

International support remains critical to maintaining macro-financial stability. Ukraine has successfully completed eight reviews of the EFF program, but given the changed conditions of wartime, it has requested a new program that would:
increase the amount of financial assistance, extend its duration, and bring together international partners to coordinate support.

The priorities of the new program remain macro-financial stability, structural reforms, and the approximation of legislation to EU standards — an important step on the path to Ukraine's membership in the European Union.
Additionally, the focus is on developing financial market infrastructure and de-shadowing the economy as a source of increased tax revenues and higher productivity.

Exchange rate policy and liberalization

The NBU continues its policy of managed exchange rate flexibility aimed at achieving an inflation target of 5%. The exchange rate is determined by supply and demand in the market, while the National Bank smooths out excessive fluctuations and covers the structural currency deficit. International reserves are sufficient to ensure market stability.
Currency liberalization continues: since May 2024, more than 400 companies have taken advantage of the opportunity to pay interest on old external loans, and more than 870 companies have repatriated new dividends. Of these, 157 have already been allowed to repatriate dividends for 2023.
The priority is to expand stimulating liberalization, which will create more favorable conditions for bringing new capital into Ukraine.

Insurance of war risks

During the war, investors need guarantees to protect their capital, so the war risk insurance market is key to attracting investment. Currently, insurance companies offer limited coverage, mainly for motor vehicles and real estate, but opportunities remain limited due to the high probability of risks and difficulties with international reinsurance.

The Ministry of Economy, together with other state bodies, is working on a short-term solution to cover war risks, which could be implemented as early as the beginning of next year with the participation of the Export Credit Agency. At the same time, work is continuing on a long-term insurance model that is less dependent on the state budget and can be implemented after the end of active hostilities.