Financial sector news

The National Bank of Ukraine has published an updated macroeconomic and monetary review reflecting trends in the Ukrainian and global economies during August–September 2025.

External environment

Economic growth in Ukraine's key trading partner countries continued, albeit unevenly. The central banks of these countries continued to cautiously adjust their monetary policies, trying to maintain a balance between fighting inflation and supporting economic growth. At the same time, inflationary pressures remained high globally due to the high cost of food and services.

Ukrainian economy

In Ukraine, inflation fell to 13.2% in August and continued to slow down in September, according to NBU estimates. This was influenced by an increase in the supply of new harvest agricultural products, which reduced food inflation. However, fundamental inflationary pressure remained significant, primarily due to imbalances in the labor market.

Business and consumers

Business expectations improved in September, indicating some stabilization in economic sentiment. At the same time, consumer sentiment deteriorated slightly, affected by increased shelling of businesses and energy infrastructure, which limited economic activity in a number of regions.

Public finances

The state budget deficit narrowed slightly in September but remained significant. It was financed mainly through international assistance. The domestic debt market remained highly active: the rollover rate for government bonds reached 126% in hryvnia and 83% in foreign currency in January–September.

Foreign trade and reserves

The trade deficit in goods decreased in August due to a reduction in imports, especially of machinery. Exports declined less significantly. Thanks to stable international aid, Ukraine's international reserves increased to USD 46 billion at the end of August.

Monetary policy

The NBU's September decision to keep the discount rate at 15.5% was aimed at maintaining currency market stability, controlling inflation expectations, and gradually returning inflation to the target level of 5%. This helped maintain demand for hryvnia instruments: net demand for non-cash currency decreased, while demand for cash remained stable.