Financial sector news

In September 2025, Ukrainian businesses are once again showing optimism—the business activity expectations index rose to 50.4 points, crossing the 50 mark. This indicates a recovery in positive assessments by entrepreneurs against the backdrop of stable consumer demand, lower inflationary pressure, and an improvement in the currency market, according to the NBU.

Businesses have resumed positive assessments of business activity.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI).

In September 2025, the BAEI rose to 50.4 from 49.0 in August 2025 and was higher than in September 2024 (48.7).

The following factors contributed to the improvement in sentiment:

• strong consumer demand;
  
• stable situation in the energy sector;
  
• budget financing for infrastructure restoration and road construction;
  
• slowing inflation;
  
• stable situation on the currency market.

The following factors continued to act as restraints:

• increased intensity of shelling;
  
• significant restoration costs;
  
• tariff increases;
  
• shortage of qualified personnel.

More details about business expectations.
Trade companies were the most optimistic among respondents due to sufficient supply of goods, brisk demand, and slowing inflation: the sectoral index rose to 54.0 in September (from 51.8 in August).

Construction companies did not expect any changes in their activities, despite road construction funding, steady domestic demand, and seasonal conditions: the sectoral index was 50.0 (in August – 54.0).

Manufacturing companies softened their assessments despite the continued destruction of production capacity and efforts to overcome its consequences, as well as a shortage of skilled workers: the sectoral index was 49.1 (in August – 48.7).

Service sector enterprises also softened their assessments of their economic prospects, despite increased business costs and complex and costly logistics: sector index – 49.4 (in August – 47.0).

Respondents from all business sectors predicted an increase in the cost of their products, goods, and services amid an expected acceleration in the growth of purchase prices.

The situation on the labor market is unstable. In particular, enterprises:

• construction – plan to gradually increase the total number of employees;
  
• trade – plan to keep the number of employees unchanged;
  
• industry and services – expect to reduce staff.