Financial sector news

The World Bank has significantly revised its economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026. According to the updated October report, the expected growth of gross domestic product will be only 2%, while the previous forecast was 5.2%.

The main reasons for the revision include continued Russian aggression, low investment activity, infrastructure destruction, and a decline in agricultural exports due to unfavorable weather conditions and the partial restoration of trade restrictions by the EU. In addition, the report notes that record-high gas imports have negatively affected the current account balance.

According to the World Bank, in the first half of 2025, the value of Ukrainian exports fell by almost 5%, mainly due to a decrease in supplies to the European Union, which remains a key market, accounting for about 60% of total exports.

It should be recalled that in April 2025, the World Bank had already revised its forecast, lowering Ukraine's GDP growth expectations from 7% to 5.2%, with the caveat that significant improvement is only possible if the full-scale war ends.

At the same time, in its new report, the institution predicts that Ukraine's economy could grow by 5% in 2027 if the security situation stabilizes and the government is able to intensify investment programs and restore critical infrastructure.