Financial sector news

In February, businesses improved their assessments of their economic activity, although they remained cautious, staying below the neutral level. The drivers of positive influence on the expectations of enterprises in all sectors were the revival of domestic demand, increased production, and the growth in the supply of goods. At the same time, the restraining factors remained the continued shelling of critical infrastructure, increased business costs for labor, heating, and electricity during the winter period, labor shortages, and inflationary processes.

This is reflected in the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for the forced break in March–May 2022. In February 2025, the BAEI was 46.9 compared to 41.0 in January 2025 and 47.5 in February 2024.

Industrial enterprises were the most optimistic in assessing their current activities, driven by the revival of consumer demand and increased production. The sector index in February crossed the neutral level and stood at 50.2 (in January 2025, it was 42.0, and in February 2024, it was 48.3). Respondents expected an increase in the volume of produced goods, new orders for products, including exports, and also eased their cautious assessments regarding the volume of unfinished production, finished goods stocks, and raw material and material supplies.

Trade enterprises significantly improved their assessments of business activity due to the revival of domestic demand and the sufficient supply of goods. The sector index in February was 49.2 (in January 2025 – 40.0, in February 2024 – 50.1). Retail companies raised their assessments of turnover volume and, unlike the previous two months, were optimistic about the stock of goods for sale and the volume of their purchases. Respondents still expected a decrease in trade margins.

Construction enterprises significantly softened their assessments but remained cautious regarding current economic results due to the seasonality of construction work, significant cold weather, and labor shortages. The sector index in February was 44.7 compared to 37.2 in January 2025 and 43.7 in February 2024. Unlike the previous three months, builders expected an increase in the volume of purchases of both raw materials and services from contractors. At the same time, expectations improved regarding the volume of construction and new orders. However, negative assessments remained regarding the availability of contractors and the cost of their services.

Service sector enterprises slightly improved their expectations but were the most cautious among all sectors, given the shortage of qualified personnel and the increase in business costs for labor, heating, and electricity during the winter period. The sector index was 42.2 in February (in January 2025 – 41.1, in February 2024 – 45.3). Respondents assessed the volume of services provided, new service orders, and services in progress better than a month ago.

Enterprises in all sectors involved in the survey expected a more moderate increase in prices/tariffs for their products/services against the backdrop of a slowdown in the growth of procurement prices.

The labor market situation slightly eased. Respondents in most surveyed sectors expected a slowdown in the pace of staff reductions, while only representatives of the service sector were inclined to expect a slight acceleration.

For reference
The monthly enterprise survey was conducted from February 4 to 21, 2025. A total of 521 enterprises participated in the survey. Of the surveyed enterprises, 42.8% were from the industrial sector, 27.4% from the service sector, 24.8% from trade, and 5.0% from construction; 29.0% of respondents were large enterprises, 26.3% were medium-sized, and 44.7% were small enterprises.
32.8% of the surveyed enterprises engage in both export and import operations, 9.2% in only export operations, 17.7% in only import operations, and 40.3% do not engage in foreign economic operations.
The results of the surveys reflect only the opinions of the respondents – the heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking trends in economic development. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their activity indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly sectoral (for each economic sector) and composite indices are calculated, which characterize the country's economic development for the month. A value of 50 for the index is neutral. Expectations are considered positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.

More details on the results of the monthly enterprise survey for February 2025 can be found in the "Monthly Business Surveys" section of the official website of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The NBU publishes the results of the monthly survey in the "Open Data" format.

The results of the next survey (for March 2025) will be published on the first working day of April 2025.