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In the second half of the year, the overall economic situation will not go beyond the macroeconomic forecasts, and the risks of a national currency collapse will be minimal.

This opinion was expressed by Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.

In his opinion, the June approval of a $50 billion loan from the G7 countries, which will be "repaid" by the frozen assets of the aggressor country, is a powerful financial "injection" for Ukraine in 2025. He reminded that next year, the projected amount of macro-financial support should be reduced by 1.5 times to $25 billion a year compared to 2024.

"Such a powerful support should remove unnecessary "fears" about the stability of the Ukrainian economy and the fate of the national currency. At least for now, Ukraine has a strong defense that will allow it to develop its economy systematically without fear," the banker said.

According to the expert, in the second half of the year the economic situation will be quite expected and will most likely coincide with the budget forecasts: 1) inflation in the country will not exceed 8.2% by the end of the year (from January to May inclusive, inflation was 2%); 2) GDP growth will slow to 3% for the year; 3) hryvnia devaluation is expected to be around 8-9%.

"In April-May, we saw an acceleration of devaluation, which totaled up to 4% over 2 months. From January to May inclusive, the hryvnia lost more than 7% of its value - from 38 UAH/$ to 40.53 UAH/$. However, in June, as expected, the devaluation was almost zero: as of July 1, the official dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by UAH 0.08 to UAH 40.45. In addition, after the increase in electricity tariffs and due to the expected increase in fuel excise taxes, inflation in the country will become more noticeable than it was in the first 5 months. However, according to the National Bank's estimates, in the second half of the year inflation will be in the range of 5-6%, which is not at all contrary to the regulator's previous forecasts," the expert said.

Mr. Mamedov believes that in the second half of the year banks will actively develop deposit programs with a special emphasis on longer-term deposits - from 1 to 2.5 years. It is on such deposits that banks offer the highest rates of return, which reach 15% per annum.

According to his calculations, by the end of the year, compared to the first half of the year, the volume of new deposits may grow by 5-7%, which can be considered a good result against the backdrop of inflationary processes. However, he warned that by the end of the year, the net profit on deposits in national currency, depending on the term of placement, could decline to 4-5%.

"It is expected that despite the rather "lively" inflation, the number of new deposits will slowly grow. There is a main reason for this: currently, for the majority of citizens, hryvnia deposits are the most acceptable opportunity not only to save their savings from depreciation, but also to receive a fairly decent net profit, which, by the way, is almost 2-2.5 times higher than the profit of deposits in dollars or euros," the expert emphasized.

The banker is convinced that in the second half of the year the right conditions have been created for the development of bank lending. He explained that this will be facilitated by the Lending Strategy approved by the Cabinet of Ministers and the results of the Berlin Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024, where about 110 international agreements worth more than $16 billion were concluded.

Sergiy Mamedov emphasized the importance of the Memorandum of Understanding on Lending for Energy Infrastructure Rehabilitation signed between the largest banks, as the signatories undertake to develop affordable lending for entrepreneurs implementing projects aimed at increasing the country's energy independence.

"In fact, the banks were able to agree on common terms and conditions, a unified approach to lending to energy infrastructure facilities, for amounts ranging from microloans to €25 million (the Memorandum provides for common terms of lending: with a down payment of 10% to 50% for a period of 5-7 years). According to the Memorandum, Ukrainian banks will lend to the construction of solar, wind, biogas, bioenergy, gas turbine and gas piston power plants, production of industrial batteries, highly maneuverable, and storage cogeneration, etc. This is an important step towards energy independence, and it also demonstrates the interest of the banking sector in the active development of lending," the banker emphasized.

He said that under the Memorandum of Understanding, interest rates have already been reduced to 13.5% per annum for condominiums and housing cooperatives that are participants in the Energy Efficiency Fund's Energodom and Grindim programs. Such loans are aimed at purchasing, repairing and installing solar power plants and heat pumps and creating new energy generation at enterprises.
"Such a step can be an incentive for the significant development of special energy programs and certainly a significant contribution to the country's energy independence and energy efficiency, as the interest rates are 35% lower than the market average," he said.

Another important factor in the development of lending, the expert believes, is that on July 5, the Government expanded the capabilities of the 5-7-9 soft loan program to meet the needs of condominiums and housing cooperatives in achieving energy independence. In particular, the program already covers the purchase of equipment for the generation and storage of electricity from alternative sources (solar and wind) at 7% per annum.

A program for lending to individuals for the purchase and installation of solar panels, wind turbines, inverters and batteries has also been introduced: households can receive unsecured loans at 0% interest for UAH 480 thousand with a maturity of up to 10 years.

As for small and medium-sized businesses, they will be able to purchase and install solar panels, wind power plants, gas turbines, gas piston and biogas generating units worth up to UAH 150 million for a maturity of up to 10 years.

In addition, the June cut in the key policy rate to 13% will allow banks to offer more favorable terms on car loans, mortgages, targeted loans for small and medium-sized businesses, etc.

"Since 2023, the key policy rate has already been reduced from 25% to 13%. Accordingly, this easing has become a real "oxygen" for bank lending: over the past year, interest rates were significantly reduced for most loan programs. This applies primarily to car loans, targeted loans for small and medium-sized businesses to purchase fixed assets (vehicles, various equipment and machinery), and joint mortgage programs with developers to purchase housing in the primary market. As of early July, loan rates were optimal, meaning they were in line with the country's economic realities. By the end of the year, the volume of car loans, mortgages and targeted loans for SMEs may grow by 7-10%, which will indicate positive economic dynamics in the country," the expert predicts.

Mr. Mamedov also focused on the foreign exchange market and exchange rate prospects for the rest of the year. According to him, the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank is quite effective in the context of the war and does not cause concern about the future of the national currency.

He reminded that in 2024, the weighted average dollar exchange rate is expected to reach UAH 40.7, and by the end of the year, the exchange rate may reach UAH 42.1. At the same time, the regulator will implement a strategy to further liberalize the foreign exchange market, gradually lifting existing restrictions. In addition, the relative exchange rate stability in the second half of the year will be due to the fact that Ukraine will receive more than $37 billion of external macro-financial assistance this year, which will cover part of the non-military budget expenditures, and its own international currency reserves, which ranged from $35 billion to $42 billion in the first half of the year, allow for sufficient flexibility in regulating supply and demand if necessary.

"We will still see exchange rate changes by the end of the year, because the market is alive and has quite active players, the main one being the National Bank of Ukraine. That is why any "cataclysms" are unlikely to occur in the foreign exchange market, which would negate the achievements of monetary policy," the banker said.

The expert emphasized that it is extremely difficult to predict the course of the war and its possible consequences for the economy and society.

"War is an incredible challenge for a country. This is the "remark" that can undo any achievements and accomplishments. The lives of millions of people and the fate of the country literally depend on its course. However, the struggle is ongoing, which means that Ukraine has enough strength to win such an important and necessary victory," summarized Sergiy Mamedov.

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JOINT STOCK COMPANY COMMERCIAL BANK GLOBUS (GLOBUS BANK) was founded in 2007.

As of April 2024, the regional network includes 31 branches. All branches of the bank are part of the unified Power Banking network, which allows them to operate in the absence of electricity.

GLOBUS BANK's credit rating on the national scale at uaAAA has been confirmed, as well as the deposit rating at ua2+ according to the scale of the Expert Rating Agency.

The priority areas of the bank's activities are mortgage lending in the primary market, car loans, lending to small and medium-sized businesses.

GLOBUS BANK is an accredited partner of a number of state programs: the state mortgage program "eOselya", the program of preferential lending to small and medium-sized businesses "5-7-9".

In September 2023, the Bank became a partner of the State Institution "Energy Efficiency Fund" under the programs of lending to condominiums and housing cooperatives "Energodom" and "Grindim".
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of the 17 largest Ukrainian banks that signed a Memorandum on lending to energy infrastructure restoration projects.

In December 2023 and early 2024, the bank joined the state credit programs "Affordable Factoring" and "Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9%".

The bank is a leader in lending for the purchase of housing in the primary market - over the past 5 years, the bank has financed 2,500 mortgage loans for UAH 2 billion.

The bank is among the top 5 leaders in car lending, with more than 600 car dealerships accredited by the bank.
Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK Sergey Mamedov is Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.