AUB News

On Inter TV channel, Andriy Dubas, President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, commented on the situation on the currency market, expectations regarding the hryvnia exchange rate in 2026, the impact of global factors on the euro-dollar ratio, and also spoke about the advantages of instant payments and gave advice to Ukrainians on how to save their money.

Speaking about the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate, Andriy Dubas emphasized that any forecasts are only possible if the current basic factors remain unchanged.

“I would like to suggest that we assume that the war in Ukraine will continue with the same intensity as it is now, and that we will continue to receive financial and military support at least at the current level,” he said.

Under such conditions, according to the President of the AUB, the currency market is usually influenced by seasonal factors.

“The dollar traditionally rises until the end of January and then falls until summer due to the sowing season and other seasonal factors. At the end of the year, there is more hryvnia on the market, and it tends to flow into foreign currency,” explained Andriy Dubas.

He predicts that the dollar may fall in the middle of the year if there are no negative changes.

“The dollar, which is currently fluctuating on the cash market within the range of 42.6 hryvnia, may fall to about 42 hryvnia closer to mid-summer,” the expert noted.

At the same time, a gradual increase in the exchange rate is possible at the end of the year.

“By the end of the year, it could be trading at 43–45 hryvnia, assuming the current situation remains unchanged,” added the AUB President.

Commenting on the possible risks, Andriy Dubas stressed that a reduction in international support could significantly affect exchange rate expectations.

“If financial or military support decreases, this could significantly worsen the forecast,” he noted.

At the same time, a positive scenario for the development of events was also outlined on the air.

“A lasting ceasefire and transition to lasting peace will mean investment in Ukraine, accelerated accession to the EU, and economic growth,” Andriy Dubas said.

According to him, in this case, the growth in household income could compensate for exchange rate fluctuations.

“If the average salary increases from 23-24 thousand hryvnia to 30 thousand, then even the psychological mark of 50 hryvnia per euro will be perceived differently,” he explained.

Speaking about the gap between the euro and dollar exchange rates, the AUB President emphasized the global nature of these processes.

"In January 2025, one euro was worth $1.03, and today it is worth about $1.18. The dollar has fallen by about 14-15% against the euro," he noted.

According to Andriy Dubas, these processes are related to US policy and global trade wars.

“These are geopolitical events that we, as Ukraine, can only observe and pay attention to,” he stressed.

The expert added that the hryvnia exchange rate against the euro and the dollar actually mirrors global trends.

“Our hryvnia exchange rates against the euro and the dollar have been identical to how these currency pairs were quoted on global markets,” said the AUB President.

Commenting on cooperation with the IMF, Andriy Dubas emphasized that this is not about direct requirements, but about recommendations to reduce the budget deficit.

“Today, Ukraine's budget deficit is about 40-50%. Half of the budget cannot be covered by internal resources,” he said.

According to him, the devaluation of the hryvnia can be considered as one of the tools for balancing the budget, but the National Bank has other priorities.

“The National Bank is fighting for price stability. Devaluation of the hryvnia immediately affects inflation,” Andriy Dubas emphasized.

He noted that the Ministry of Finance's forecasts for the dollar exchange rate did not come true this year and are unlikely to come true next year.

“The Ministry of Finance set a target of 45 hryvnias per dollar by the end of the year, but now we see an exchange rate of about 42.5,” he noted.

According to the AUB President, the possible weakening of the hryvnia in 2026 will be moderate.

“I think that the devaluation can be up to 5% — that is, about 43–43.5 hryvnias per dollar by the end of the year,” he said.

Separately, Andriy Dubas explained the principle of instant payments.

“Instant payments allow you to make a transfer without using a card — directly from IBAN account to IBAN account,” he explained.

According to him, such payments are much faster and cheaper.

“The regulation is up to 10 seconds, but the average is 1–2 seconds. The recipient sees the funds immediately,” the AUB President noted.

He emphasized that for business this means a significant reduction in costs.

“Businesses will pay less commissions, there will be no need to rent bank terminals, and funds will move within the Ukrainian banking system,” he added.

At the same time, according to Andriy Dubas, ordinary users will not experience any discomfort.

“For clients, this is just another convenient payment tool, and for business, significantly lower costs,” he explained.

At the end of the broadcast, the AUB President gave advice to Ukrainians on saving savings.

“Hryvnia instruments — deposits and government bonds — showed a better result than storing currency in cash,” he noted.

At the same time, Andriy Dubas called for adhering to the principle of diversification.

“The golden rule of savings is not to keep all your funds in one basket: part in foreign currency, part in hryvnia instruments, and a certain amount of cash in case of force majeure,” concluded the President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.