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Укр "The hryvnia exchange rate is held thanks to international support and the active policy of the NBU," — Andriy Dubas
President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Andriy Dubas took part in the live broadcast of the telethon "United News" on the Inter TV channel. During a conversation with host Oleksandr Vasylchenko, he explained why the euro is strengthening, what is happening to the dollar, how this affects the hryvnia exchange rate, and what changes should be expected in the area of prices and inflation.
The focus of the conversation was on the dynamics of the foreign exchange market and its impact on the Ukrainian economy during the war. Andriy Dubas focused on the key factor in the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate - international financial assistance.
"Today's hryvnia to dollar and hryvnia to euro exchange rates are ensured by the fact that an international coalition is helping Ukraine economically with finances. [...] If we didn't have this coalition of states for three years, we would have a much worse situation on all economic fronts," Dubas emphasized.
According to the President of AUB, the National Bank of Ukraine remains the main player in the foreign exchange market, and flexible monetary policy allows for a prompt response to external challenges. He also drew attention to seasonal factors that affect the exchange rate.
"I always recommend paying attention to June and January. In January, it is the peak when foreign currency is the most expensive in relation to the hryvnia. And in June, it is the cheapest. This is both an agricultural factor and the seasonality of tax calculations," Dubas said.
Speaking about global risks, the expert emphasized that the confrontation between the United States and China plays an important role in the global economy. According to him, it is this geopolitical factor that can have a long-term impact on the exchange rates of leading currencies and, accordingly, on the situation in Ukraine.
"What I would pay more attention to is the confrontation between the United States and China. Because this is a struggle between the world's first and second economies. And there can be many unpredictable stories here," the AUB president emphasized.
Andriy Dubas also commented on the current inflation situation. According to him, the increase in prices observed in the first months of the year is due to a number of factors from last year - excise policy, currency liberalization and seasonal demand for currency.
At the same time, he noted that this inflationary pressure is gradually decreasing. The National Bank has already responded by raising the discount rate, and it is expected that by the end of the year inflation may stabilize within 8–10%.
Summing up, Andriy Dubas confirmed that the economic situation in Ukraine remains under control thanks to the coordinated actions of the National Bank, the support of international partners and the adaptability of the Ukrainian economy to new challenges.
