Expert opinion

In 2026, with further decline in inflation and gradual economic recovery, average interest rates on loans in Ukraine may decrease by 1-1.5 percentage points. At the same time, this forecast largely depends on the security situation, the intensity of hostilities, and the impact of the war on the economy.
This was stated by Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, commenting on current trends in the credit market.

"There is potential for further rate cuts, but it is directly linked to macroeconomic stability and the NBU's monetary policy, in particular the reduction of the discount rate, which determines the cost of money (since March 2025, the discount rate has remained at 15.5%). The level of lending rates may also be influenced by the overall dynamics of the economy and the regularity of macro-financial assistance from partner countries, which should cover the gap between revenues and expenditures and help balance the state budget," notes Serhii Mamedov.

In general, based on data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the expert noted that by the end of 2025, the total volume of bank loans issued had grown by an average of 15–18% compared to 2024, and the volume of loans to businesses had increased by more than 20%. At the same time, about 45% of loans issued were for state credit programs, while the rest were commercial bank loans.

"While in 2022–2023, lending was effectively ‘driven’ by state programs, accounting for up to 70% of the total portfolio, by 2024 commercial loans accounted for 40–45%. And in 2025, their volume already exceeds loans under state programs," the banker emphasizes.

Key trends in lending in 2026

The banker spoke in detail about the main trends in lending in 2026. Among the key factors that will continue to determine the dynamics of the credit market, he names the development of state programs, competition between banks, business demand for available resources, and the monetary policy of the NBU.

Development of state lending programs

The head of GLOBUS BANK reminded that the 2026 budget allocates record resources to support business and develop the “єОселя” mortgage program. UAH 18 billion is planned to be allocated to the “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” program, and another UAH 7.4 billion to innovation and defense technologies within the Brave1 platform. According to the expert, these figures indicate that the state will continue to actively use preferential financing as a tool for economic recovery and stimulation of entrepreneurial activity.

The development of “єОселя” is particularly significant. The total resource of the program included in the state budget is UAH 17.1 billion. In addition, the program operator, Ukrainian Financial Housing Company (Ukrfinzhytlo), received UAH 30 billion in recapitalization in the form of domestic government bonds (OVDP). There are also plans to attract additional international funds, which will make it possible to cover even more families.

“For citizens, this means real opportunities to purchase housing on favorable terms, and for the economy, it is a stimulus for the development of the construction sector and related industries,” he emphasized.

Total public investment, including preferential loans and grant support, is estimated at UAH 111.5 billion in 2026, of which UAH 63.5 billion will come from a special fund. For comparison, in 2025, only about UAH 25 billion was allocated for these purposes, meaning that the resources in 2026 will be almost twice as much. This will not only allow for more extensive support for businesses, but also enable a more effective response to the challenges of recovery.

“In wartime, state credit programs remain not only a tool for supporting businesses and citizens, but also an important incentive for banks to become more flexible and seek opportunities to reduce interest rates. In addition, the development of state preferential lending programs is a key mechanism for creating jobs, stimulating business, and expanding opportunities for citizens. It is precisely this kind of support that is now helping the economy move forward in difficult times for the country," emphasized Serhiy Mamedov.

Increased competition for borrowers

The banker noted that in 2025, against the backdrop of growing competition between banks and the active development of partnership lending programs, the average cost of loans for small and medium-sized businesses has already begun to decline.
While last year the average interest rate on loans for SMEs was 18-21% per annum, the current rates are in the range of 15-18%. According to the expert, next year, depending on the loan program and term, rates could potentially fall to 14-16.5% per annum.
At the same time, such a significant reduction in lending rates may also be associated with relatively small loan amounts: UAH 1-3 million for a term of 3-5 years.

If a bank is interested in building a high-quality loan portfolio, then, in addition to special programs with manufacturers and suppliers of fixed assets for entrepreneurs, it can offer loans that will not become a financial burden for the borrower. The formula for an effective loan with a non-performing loan ratio close to zero is simple: a profitable partner, a moderate loan amount for a clearly defined purpose, and professional banking support for both the borrower and the partner," emphasized the head of GLOBUS BANK.

Implementation and development of loan programs for veterans
In 2025, a number of Ukrainian banks have already launched special loan programs to support veteran businesses. In particular, such programs are actively combined with the state program “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%.” According to the expert, banks not only provide loans under the state program, but also additionally compensate part of the interest rate.

“Entrepreneurs, companies, owners, or managers who have served or are serving in the Armed Forces can receive additional compensation from banks in the amount of 1-2 percentage points,” said Serhii Mamedov.

“Credit hubs”

Another trend in lending in 2026, according to the banker, is the gradual universalization of banks, which can offer customers both participation in government programs and favorable terms for their own loan products.
The expert recalled that 46 banks are participating in the “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” program, 11 banks are participating in the ‘eOselya’ program, 7 banks are partners in the “Affordable Factoring” program, and 10 banks participate in the “Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9%” program.

The banker drew attention to participation in state energy lending programs. Thus, five banks participate in the program for homeowners (loans for solar panels and wind turbines in the amount of up to UAH 480,000 for a term of up to 10 years at a rate of 0%), and five banks are participating in the program for condominiums and housing cooperatives (the GreenDIM program from the Energy Efficiency Fund, which compensates up to 70% of the cost of energy modernization work).
He also noted that, for example, participation in the “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” program for SMEs is often combined with local government initiatives to support entrepreneurs, which compensate either part of the interest or the loan amount. This significantly reduces the credit burden on borrowers.

“For condominiums, an additional factor in the availability of financing is cooperation with local authorities and the Energy Efficiency Fund, which combines bank loans with grants and compensation,” the banker emphasized.

According to his forecast, in 2026-2027, up to two-thirds of Ukrainian banks may operate as “credit hubs,” offering customers “loans of their choice” (under state programs, partnership programs) or comprehensive financing solutions, where state programs are combined with banking programs.
“We see a steady demand from businesses for affordable loans. That is why banks are actively combining state programs, local government initiatives to compensate interest rates, and partnership programs with manufacturers and suppliers of machinery and equipment,” explains Serhii Mamedov.

Development of partnership programs

The development of partnership programs with manufacturers and suppliers of machinery, equipment, and transport is becoming a separate competitive advantage for banks.

“This is a win-win model: businesses get favorable terms, suppliers get a reliable financial partner, and banks get a high-quality portfolio. It is within the framework of partnership programs that banks can offer borrowers loans at 1-2 percentage points below the market average,” the expert emphasizes.

The effectiveness of this model is confirmed by statistics: in 2025, more than 60% of loans for the purchase of fixed assets (cars, machinery, and equipment) were issued within the framework of partnership programs.
“In 2026, even in the context of war, the credit market will move towards more accessible and flexible financing. The combination of government programs, partnership solutions, and increased competition between banks creates conditions for a gradual reduction in rates and the formation of a high-quality loan portfolio with a minimum percentage of non-performing loans,” concluded Sergey Mamedov.

Deposit scenario for 2026: lower rates without losing profitability

According to Serhii Mamedov, banks' deposit policy for individuals in 2026 will be largely shaped by macrofinancial factors — primarily the level of inflation, the effectiveness of the NBU's monetary policy, and the situation on the currency market. He recalled that, according to the NBU's forecast, annual inflation may slow down to 6.6%, which creates the conditions for strengthening the role of hryvnia deposits as a means of preserving and multiplying the population's funds.

According to the banker, a reduction in inflationary pressure, if current economic trends continue, could form the basis for decisions by the NBU's monetary committee to cautiously lower the discount rate from the current 15.5% to 14-14.5%. Similar changes are likely in other monetary instruments: in particular, the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit may fall from 19% to 17.5-18%. That is why he assumes that in 2026, average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of placement of funds, may decrease by 1 percentage point to 13-13.5% per annum.

"If the discount rate decreases, this will simultaneously affect the cost of other monetary instruments, in particular NBU deposit certificates. Such changes will gradually adjust trends in the deposit segment: rates on hryvnia deposits are likely to decrease slightly. But for depositors, the arithmetic is simple: the return on a deposit must exceed inflation and the tax burden. If inflation remains at 9.7-10%, taking into account interest taxes (23%), rates on hryvnia deposits should start at around 13% per annum. But given the experience of previous years, citizens will “look for” deposits with rates that are 1-2 percentage points higher. It can be said that in 2026, if the discount rate and other monetary instruments are reduced by 1-1.5 percentage points, banks will be able to offer new depositors a yield of 14-15% per annum," explains Serhiy Mamedov.

The currency market will play a special role in shaping deposit sentiment. The banker recalled that the weighted average dollar exchange rate for 2026 in the state budget is set at UAH 45.7/$, while the expected annual fluctuation range will be UAH 43–45/$. In the first half of the year, according to his estimates, exchange rate changes will mainly occur within the range of 42.8–43.5 UAH/$. Such relative exchange rate stability reduces devaluation expectations and maintains depositors' interest in hryvnia deposits.
According to the expert, an important factor in the development of the deposit market remains the confidence in the hryvnia on the part of both banks and depositors.

“Banks are systematically working to strengthen this trust through predictable conditions, understandable products, and high returns. This is the foundation for the development of the deposit market. And under favorable economic conditions, banks will be able to continue to offer competitive and attractive terms for hryvnia deposits,” concluded Serhiy Mamedov.

The currency market will play a special role in shaping deposit sentiment. The banker recalled that the weighted average dollar exchange rate for 2026 in the state budget is set at UAH 45.7/$, while the expected annual fluctuation range will be UAH 43–45/$. In the first half of the year, according to his estimates, exchange rate changes will mainly occur within the range of 42.8–43.5 UAH/$. Such relative exchange rate stability reduces devaluation expectations and maintains depositors' interest in hryvnia deposits.
According to the expert, an important factor in the development of the deposit market remains the confidence in the hryvnia on the part of both banks and depositors.

“Banks are systematically working to strengthen this trust through predictable conditions, understandable products, and high returns. This is the foundation for the development of the deposit market. And under favorable economic conditions, banks will be able to continue to offer competitive and attractive terms for hryvnia deposits,” concluded Serhiy Mamedov.

The bank is a partner of the State Agency “Energy Efficiency Fund” in the lending programs for condominiums and housing cooperatives ‘Energodim’ and “GreenDim.”
The bank participates in the state program “National Cashback.”
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of 17 largest Ukrainian banks that signed a Memorandum on lending for energy infrastructure restoration projects.

Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.