Expert opinion

In 2026, the dollar will fluctuate between 43 and 45 hryvnia, and the euro between 50 and 52 hryvnia. Thus, the official dollar exchange rate may increase by an average of 2-7% compared to 2025.

This forecast was provided by Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.
At the same time, according to the expert, any exchange rate changes will be slow and controlled, which will spare market participants from shock and will not cause a sharp increase in demand on the cash market.

Based on data from the Financial Pulse Center for Economic Research and Forecasting, he recalled that in the draft State Budget for 2026, the Government set an average annual exchange rate of 45.7 UAH/$ and 49.4 UAH/€, while the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the dollar exchange rate will be at 45.4 UAH/USD.
At the same time, the expert noted that in 2025, the weighted average “budget” exchange rate was expected to be 45 UAH/USD, while during the year, the official exchange rate was on average 7-8% lower.

Serhiy Mamedov emphasized that this year the difference between the exchange rates set in the budget and the actual exchange rates is quite significant. Due to the pegging of budget indicators to the US dollar exchange rate, the exchange rate difference deficit increased by UAH 400 billion (over $9 billion) during the year.

"On the one hand, the position and strategy of the National Bank is quite balanced: during the year, we saw that the regulator managed to find a balance between monetary regulation (in particular, increasing the discount rate to strengthen the hryvnia) and implementing a “managed flexibility” regime in the currency market, the essence of which is to maximize demand and establish a balance between supply and demand. On the other hand, the government and MPs had to revise the state budget, as a UAH 400 billion hole appeared in the exchange rate difference. It is quite possible that in 2026 Ukraine will be able to avoid an additional budget deficit due to the discrepancy between the budget and real exchange rates," he said.

According to his forecast, a number of strategic factors will influence the currency market in 2026.

First, the course or cessation of the war. According to the banker, this is a basic factor on which not only the country's economic development will depend, but also its very existence as an independent sovereign state.

Second, the amount of international financial assistance. According to budget estimates, Ukraine will need at least $46.5 billion next year, which will be used primarily to cover budget expenditures.

“It is very important that the EU has decided to grant Ukraine an interest-free loan of €90 billion for 2026-2027. After all, Ukraine's ability to quickly recover and finance the country's urgent needs will depend on these funds, as the war is ”sucking out“ finances and weakening the economy,” Serhiy Mamedov noted.

Thirdly, the monetary policy and currency regulation of the National Bank. First of all, we are talking about the regulator's active monetary strategy — with inflation forecast to fall to 9.7% in 2026, the National Bank will have the opportunity to slightly lower its discount rate. At the same time, depending on the military and economic situation, a “managed flexibility” regime will be in effect on the market, with a gradual reduction in the regulatory role of the National Bank. According to Serhiy Mamedov, the National Bank is unlikely to abandon its currency strategy next year, but its policy may become more flexible in terms of the volume of currency interventions.

"The market expects that, under favorable circumstances, exchange rate formation will gradually depend on market participants, rather than on the market balance between currency buyers and sellers. At the same time, the NBU will slowly weaken the regulatory system, gradually moving closer to the standards of a liberalized, free market. However, such a scenario will only be possible if the basic condition is met—the cessation of hostilities," the banker explained.

Predicting the situation on the currency market in January-March 2026, Serhiy Mamedov emphasized that the National Bank's strategy on the currency market is unlikely to change significantly. Therefore, it should be expected that the NBU will continue to play a leading role, adjusting supply and demand through currency interventions, thereby preventing sharp and chaotic changes in exchange rates. He believes that during the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to the need for businesses to make tax payments, as well as due to a seasonal decrease in demand for currency, the official dollar exchange rate may fluctuate between 42.6 and 43 hryvnia.

"It is quite possible that next year the currency market will be fairly balanced. If things go well, like if the fighting stops, Ukraine gets steady and comprehensive financial support from international partners, and the economy actively recovers (with help from big international investors), exchange rates won't cause any panic or concern. At present, not only Ukraine's prospects are crucial, but also real mechanisms for economic growth," concluded Serhiy Mamedov.

JOINT STOCK COMPANY “COMMERCIAL BANK ”GLOBUS" (GLOBUS BANK) was founded in 2007.

As of December 2025, the regional network has 34 branches, including 29 that are part of the Power Banking network, which allows them to operate in the absence of electricity.

GLOBUS BANK has been confirmed as having the highest credit rating on the national scale at uaAAA, as well as a deposit rating of ua2+ on the scale of the rating agency Expert-Rating.
The bank's priority areas of activity are lending to energy-efficient projects, mortgage lending in the primary market, car loans, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
GLOBUS BANK is an accredited partner of a number of state programs: the state mortgage program “eOselya,” the preferential lending program for small and medium-sized businesses “5-7-9,” “Affordable Factoring,” “Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9,” and “Energy Independence for Individuals - Homeowners.”

The bank is a partner of the State Agency “Energy Efficiency Fund” in the ‘Energodim’ and “GreenDim” lending programs for condominiums and housing cooperatives.
The bank is a participant in the state program “National Cashback.”
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of 17 largest Ukrainian banks that signed a Memorandum on lending for energy infrastructure restoration projects.

Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.