Expert opinion

Over the next two years, Ukraine's currency market will remain under control, and under the baseline scenario, the dollar will not exceed UAH 48.

This was stated by Dilyara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department at Financial Pulse, citing forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine.

She noted that despite the risks of war, the macroeconomic parameters show a trend towards gradual market normalization.
The currency deficit will decrease starting in 2027
In the draft state budget for 2026, the government has set an average annual exchange rate of 45.7 UAH/USD and 49.4 UAH/EUR. The IMF expects an exchange rate of 45.4 UAH/USD in 2026 and 47.5 UAH/USD in 2027.
Although the NBU does not publish an official exchange rate forecast, the regulator states in its October inflation report that the private sector's currency deficit will remain significant in 2026 but will begin to decline in 2027.

“This will happen thanks to growth in export revenues, primarily in the agricultural sector, metallurgy, IT services, and certain areas of mechanical engineering. At the same time, imports will decline naturally, including energy supplies,” explains Dilyara Mustafayeva.

According to forecasts, the excess of imports over exports will decrease from UAH 55.8 billion at the end of 2025 to UAH 42.8 billion in 2027, and the coverage of imports by exports will increase from 50% to 61%.

The private sector will receive more currency

The supply of currency in the private sector will grow, in particular due to:

• increased harvests and stable demand for Ukrainian agricultural products;
  
  
• the recovery of the global economy, which will support metallurgists;
  
  
• the expansion of arms production within international projects;
  
  
• growth in IT exports.

“From 2027, we expect a significant revival in the inflow of investment and debt capital. Confidence will return to the currency market, which will reduce demand for cash currency,” the expert notes.

Support from partners will remain critical
In 2026, Ukraine expects to receive more than $45 billion in international aid, and in 2027 — $39 billion. These amounts will make it possible to avoid emission financing of the budget.

"Provided that European integration reforms and cooperation with the IMF continue, the NBU will be able to continue to compensate for the structural currency deficit. This is the key to maintaining market stability," emphasizes Dilara Mustafayeva.

According to the NBU's estimates, international reserves will grow to $54 billion by the end of this year (5.5 months of imports) and exceed 6 months of imports in 2027.

Risks remain significant

The main threats to the forecast are military: the intensity of shelling, destruction of infrastructure, decline in production activity, irregularity of external financing, and deepening migration trends.

“If the basic assumptions prove true, the dollar exchange rate will not exceed 48 hryvnia in 2026–2027. The market will remain manageable. But everything will depend on the course of the war and the stability of external support,” summarizes Dilyara Mustafayeva.

Reference:

The public organization “Center for Economic Research and Forecasting ”Financial Pulse" was established on March 2, 2015, with the aim of uniting the efforts of participants and experts in the Ukrainian financial market for its development and improvement.

The Center's activities will contribute to the following goals:

• Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market, eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development
  
  
• Increasing the transparency of financial institutions
  
  
• Developing new market instruments and mechanisms, including through the introduction of best international practices
  
  
• Improving the financial literacy of the population
  
  
• Promoting economic reforms, including through financial decentralization
• Promoting the development of entrepreneurship, etc.

Center website: http://finpuls.com/

Social media: https://www.facebook.com/finpulse.center/