Expert opinion

Despite the war, the Ukrainian economy is gradually adapting, and lending is reviving. According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, at the beginning of June 2025, the portfolio of bank loans to the real sector of the economy reached over UAH 827 billion. This is 5.8% more than at the beginning of the year and 10% more than in pre-war 2021. At the same time, consumer lending is also picking up — the portfolio of loans to individuals in national currency grew by 11% in just six months.

This is stated in an analytical article by the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse.”

According to Dilara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department of “Financial Pulse,” such rates indicate a noticeable recovery of confidence and financial activity in the country, but the potential for expanding lending is still very significant.

“Ukraine has enormous room for growth in lending. Both in the business sector and among the population, we see that the debt burden is still quite moderate. This means that the market is still far from saturation, and banks have ample room to expand their lending activities,” Mustafaeva emphasizes.

Business loans: focus on SMEs

Currently, small and medium-sized companies are the most active borrowers. Since the beginning of 2025, the loan portfolio for small businesses has grown by more than 11%, and for medium-sized businesses by almost 7%. Large enterprises, on the other hand, have attracted fewer loans, with only a 4% increase since the beginning of the year.

“In essence, it is the small and medium-sized business segment that is driving the recovery in lending today. And this is logical: large corporations have other sources of financing — Eurobonds, foreign banks, international funds. Ukrainian banks have historically worked more with SMEs,” the expert explains.

However, there are other reasons why large companies are taking out fewer bank loans in Ukraine. One of the main reasons, according to the analyst, is the restriction on portfolio concentration — the average Ukrainian bank is simply physically unable to issue a loan that would satisfy the financial appetites of large businesses.

“This requires either banks with more capital or the development of consortium lending, where several banks jointly finance one company. But so far, this practice is only in its infancy,” she adds.

Loans to individuals: goods, housing, and cars

Compared to European countries, Ukrainians' credit burden appears modest. For example, household loans in Ukraine account for only 3.4% of GDP, while in Poland they account for 22.9%, in Austria 43.9%, in Germany almost 50%, and in Denmark over 85%.

“Only a quarter of Ukrainian households have loans, which is very low compared to the EU. This situation is a result of both the caution of banks and reduced demand against the backdrop of the war. But it also indicates enormous potential for growth,” Mustafaeva believes.

Particularly revealing is the data on the so-called DSTI ratio — the ratio of loan servicing costs to income. On average, it is about 20%, which is considered a safe level. Even for mortgages — the most expensive type of lending — this ratio does not exceed 40%.

“For most borrowers, the credit burden remains quite acceptable, as they take out small loans. By the way, such loans are the most common. Of course, there are low-income groups for whom debt servicing costs reach almost 40%,” the expert notes.

The most popular type of loan among individuals is loans for the purchase of goods. These loans form the basis of banks' hryvnia portfolios. Compared to the pre-war period, these loans have grown by almost 29%. Mortgages are also growing rapidly — in three years, their portfolio has more than doubled. At the same time, car loans have declined, although this year they are showing signs of recovery.

According to experts, despite the current risks, the development of lending is key to economic recovery. However, without state support, it will be difficult to get this process off the ground.

“Today, it is particularly important to develop state programs for affordable lending. They should cover both strategic sectors of the economy and small businesses and the mortgage sector. This not only stimulates consumption but also triggers the development of construction, manufacturing, and services,” concludes Dilara Mustafayeva.

Reference:

The public organization “Center for Economic Research and Forecasting ”Financial Pulse" was established on March 2, 2015, with the aim of uniting the efforts of participants and experts in the Ukrainian financial market for its development and improvement.

The Center's activities will contribute to the achievement of the following goals:

Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market and eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development

Increasing the transparency of financial institutions

Developing new market instruments and mechanisms, including through the introduction of best international practices

Improving the financial literacy of the population

Promoting economic reforms, including through financial decentralization

Promoting the development of entrepreneurship, etc.

Center website: http://finpuls.com/
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