Expert opinion

 Increasing the military levy from 1.5% to 5% will lead to an increase in the total tax burden on deposit income to 23% (except for income from deposits of military personnel and equivalent categories of citizens, for whom the military levy rate will remain at 1.5%), but this fact will not affect the number of new depositors.

This opinion was expressed by Dmytro Zamotayev, director of the retail business department of GLOBUS BANK. According to him, the decrease in profitability is unlikely to significantly affect the activity of citizens who have decided to place their funds in banks. Firstly, increasing inflationary pressure forces many to look for reliable mechanisms for saving funds (for 70% of citizens who have "free" funds, they consider it a priority to place them in deposits), and secondly, currently there is a sufficient selection of deposit programs on a different term that makes it possible to "adjust" the needs of a specific person to available contributions.

 

 

 

 

“Discussions about the revision of taxes and, in particular, the military levy have been going on since the beginning of the year, and only during the last 1.5 months, "chatter" and "reasoning" took on a clear outline. And during this time, almost a third of the calls to the bank's call center were related to questions about how profit can decrease and which deposit programs provide the opportunity to get the highest return. That is, citizens are quite ready for such a decrease in income, and the changes in taxation did not become a sensation for them," the expert noted.

 

 

 

 

The specialist emphasized that in the summer many potential depositors decided to take a break, carefully monitoring the changes in exchange rates and inflation rates. That is why, compared to January-April, the number of new deposits in the summer period practically did not change.
However, already in the beginning of autumn, as Mr. Zamotayev claims, a change in citizens' behavior was recorded - interest mainly in ultra-short (3-6 months) and long-term deposits (from 1 year to 2.5 years) resumed. 

“The return of citizens' interest in placing funds in ultra-short-term deposits is explained by the fact that the majority of depositors are trying to "reinsure" on the eve of the new winter and its still "unknown" energy consequences, as well as existing fears for the "fate" of the hryvnia," the expert said.

The banker emphasized that inflation is currently under control and is unlikely to cross the forecast mark of 8.5% for the year by the end of the year, and inflation will be less than 10% next year, which is also not critical for investors who intend to invest in long-term deposits. As for the situation on the foreign exchange market, thanks to the effective actions of the National Bank, exchange rate "chaos" was avoided, and fluctuations have been occurring within the "forecasted norm" for a long time. In addition, it is expected that by the end of the year the value of the US dollar will reach the mark of 42-42.1 hryvnias / $ - this is the rate set in the country's budget for the end of the year.

“Buying currency, although it is considered by some to be a reliable means of saving funds from inflation, but such a solution is half-hearted, because both the dollar and the euro are characterized by inflation, which is about 3% this year. That is, the conversion of hryvnias into dollars or euros does not always "save" savings from slow devaluation," the specialist is convinced. 

Regarding the popularity of long-term deposits (from 1 year to 2.5 years), first of all, such deposits are interesting for their interest rates, because they are the highest on the market: average rates reach 13% per annum, and the maximum - 15% per annum. In his opinion, long-term deposits are designed for those citizens who, firstly, have enough free funds and are ready to deposit them in the bank without excessive fears of urgent termination of the deposit agreement.

“We can say that long-term deposits are designed for those citizens who have both significant savings and a significant stable income, which together make it possible to invest funds and receive passive income. Currently, we can say that more than 80% of new deposits opened from September to November are ultra-short and long-term deposits, the number of which is distributed almost equally," the expert states. 

The banker gave some relevant advice to citizens who will decide to place funds on deposits in the near future. Among them:

1. It is very desirable to clearly define the purpose of the deposit for yourself: it can be from the simplest attempt to “index” the funds to the inflation rate by placing the funds for a short period of time (from 3 months to 6 months), or the goal can be to receive a passive profit (currently, only long-term deposits from 1 year guarantee depositors the possibility of receiving a "net" profit in the amount of 2-3%).
2. A citizen must clearly calculate the time for which he can invest free funds (ie, this is the time when he will not need these funds). Very often, sums from 20,000 rubles are placed on ultra-short deposits. UAH up to 300,000 UAH Placing small sums is characteristic of people who, for example, temporarily change their place of residence due to certain circumstances. Larger sums — from 100,000 UAH up to 300,000 UAH - placed by citizens "on the eve" of purchasing a car or home with the help of loans, etc. In such cases, an ultra-short deposit is essentially a reliable "safe" and also with interest.
3. In the short term, rates on ultra-short term deposits may increase slightly — as a sign of "compensation" for the forced expenses of clients due to the increase in military duty. In addition, from the end of November until the New Year, some banks can introduce "attractive" promotional offers in terms of rates, which will interest potential customers. But in general, all these changes are tactical: ultra-short deposits do not provide banks with the resources necessary for "intensification" of lending, accordingly, the rates on such deposits will tend to decrease.Developing lending, banks are gradually reorienting their deposit programs to long-term deposits, because the funds raised for deposits are directed specifically to lending.  
4. When deciding on the placement of funds for a longer term, it is worth choosing deposits at optimal rates (currently, the average return on deposits from 1 year is 13% per annum, and the maximum is 15% per annum). In addition, in November and December, potential investors can count on "special" offers that can give an additional 1% to the declared yield of deposits.
5. If there is a sufficient amount of free funds, citizens can open 2 deposits at once, one of which can be ultra-short in case of an urgent need for additional funds.

“Banks carefully study the economic situation in the country. Controlled inflation and a fairly predictable situation on the foreign exchange market encourage financial institutions to actively develop deposit programs with a special emphasis on long-term deposits. And by the end of the year, you can count on increased competition for depositors: "promotional" offers with additional interest "bonuses" may appear on the market. That is why placing free funds on deposits can guarantee citizens at least the preservation of funds from depreciation, and in the case of long-term deposits, you can count on receiving a "clean" profit," concluded Dmytro Zamotaev.