Expert opinion

In May, most banks will adjust rates on hryvnia deposits: their maximum yield will not exceed 15% per annum. This was reported by Dmytro Zamotayev, Retail Banking Director of GLOBUS BANK, a member of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.

According to him, after the April decrease in the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit from 17.5% to 16.5%, which is the basis for the yield on hryvnia deposits, the expected decrease in rates on deposits in national currency will be 1% on average. Thus, the average yield on deposits with a maturity of 3 months to 6 months is expected to reach 12-12.5% per annum, and the average yield on deposits with a maturity of 9 months to 1 year - up to 12% per annum.

“In May, the downward trend in the yield on hryvnia deposits will intensify: according to various estimates, almost two-thirds of commercial banks will adjust it in line with the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit. At the same time, the short-term “April trend” will continue until the middle of the month: due to the expected and objective decline in hryvnia deposit rates, the number of customers making deposits at the “old” rates may increase by 5-10% on average,” the banker said.

However, according to the expert, the decline in yields on hryvnia deposits is unlikely to significantly affect their popularity among citizens. He named several main reasons for the steady popularity of hryvnia deposits, which, according to his forecast, will continue in May:

1. Given the low inflation rate of only 3.2% per annum, and taking into account bank fees, the net return on hryvnia deposits made in April-May, depending on the term of placement, can average 6-7% per annum.
2. In terms of yield and net profit, hryvnia deposits are on average 3 times higher than foreign currency deposits, as the optimal rate for deposits in US dollars does not exceed 1.8% per annum, while deposits in euros will give you only 1.6-1.4% per annum.
3. Hryvnia deposits are a simple, clear and easy-to-use mechanism for generating passive income (for example, opening a deposit through a mobile application takes only a few minutes).
4. Opening a hryvnia deposit gives you the opportunity to receive additional bonuses to standard rates, which maximizes your income. Such bonuses amount to 0.5%-1% per annum.
Dmitry Zamotayev believes that the decline in hryvnia deposit rates is gradually leading to the reformatting of this segment: on the one hand, the economic situation encourages banks to develop longer-term deposit products, systematically reducing ultra-short-term deposit programs, and on the other hand, it strengthens public confidence in the banking system and the national currency in general.

“Of course, the growth of term deposits of individuals is not and cannot be static: for example, in 2023, the volume of funds placed on hryvnia deposits increased by an average of 19%. And from January to April this year, this figure increased by only 1-1.5%. Obviously, the segment of bank deposits is gradually approaching a plateau, which is neither a good nor a bad sign: there are no more “crazy” rates, and there is a gradual reduction in ultra-short deposits and an increase in longer-term deposits,” he said.

In addition, the expert believes that the main trend in 2024 will be the curtailment of foreign currency deposit programs by banks and concentration on deposits in the national currency.

“Hryvnia deposits have replaced foreign currency deposits in terms of yield and net profit, as for about a year now, most customers have been using foreign currency bank deposits not as a means of earning money, but as a convenient ‘safe’ storage of savings. That is why the further development of foreign currency deposit programs will be rather sluggish, with no expectations of a sharp increase in their popularity,” the banker emphasized.

The expert also named the most popular hryvnia deposits by amount and term. Thus, since the beginning of the year, the most popular deposits among citizens are those for a term of 3 months to 6 months - their share in the total structure of hryvnia deposits amounted to more than 50%, deposits for a term of 9 months to 1 year are of interest to about 30-40% of citizens-depositors, and the share of long-term deposits for 1.5-2 years is on average 10-20%.

He said that among hryvnia deposits, deposits in the amount of UAH 100 thousand - UAH 200 thousand prevail, accounting for more than 40% of the total. Deposits in the amount of UAH 50 thousand - UAH 100 thousand account for up to 30%, deposits up to UAH 50 thousand - about 15%, deposits from UAH 200 thousand to UAH 500 thousand - about 10%, and deposits in the amount of more than UAH 500 thousand - up to 5% of the total number of deposits in the national currency.

According to the expert, given the rather optimistic economic forecasts, by the end of the year the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit may be reduced to 15%, which will actually fuel the downward trend in the yield on hryvnia deposits.

“By the end of the year, the maximum yield on hryvnia deposits is expected to be no higher than 13-14% per annum. At the same time, average rates will vary from 10% to 11% depending on the term of placement. However, the popularity of hryvnia deposits will remain quite high, as they will be unrivaled among other mechanisms of passive income generation, along with the convenience of registration,” summarized Mr. Zamotayev.