Expert opinion

In 2024, under favorable economic conditions, the number of new deposits is forecast to increase by 20-25%, and the majority of them (over 40-45%) will be placed for a period of 3 to 6 months. Investments with a duration of 9 months to 1 year can amount to 35% of the total number of new deposits. It is forecasted that the share of currency deposits will be at the level of 15-18%, and hryvnia deposits with a term of 1 year and above may be 5% to 7%. Pro tse розповив  Dmytro Zamotaev, director of retail business department  GLOBUS BANKU.

In the segment of currency deposits, according to a banker, a certain stagnation will be observed during 2024: average rates for dollar deposits are unlikely to drop below 1.8% per annum, and average rates for deposits in Euros do not exceed 1.5% annual.

"Banks will emphatically develop hryvnia deposits themselves, offering clients a decent income, which will additionally cover inflation," - emphasized the expert. 

Vin does not rule out that next year, when inflation rates decrease from the forecasted almost 10% to 7-5%, items for hryvnia deposits may decrease to 12-10% per annum, however, "pure "Investors' profit (taking into account inflation and mandatory commissions) will be quite high - at the level of 4-5%, which will almost exceed the yield of currency deposits by 2.5-3 times.

"Positive dynamics in the economy will prompt the regulator to further correct the accounting item and interest for 3-month decertificates. In the next year, the amount of the accounting item may come as close as possible to the "pre-war" level - up to 10 -12%. Accordingly, the rate for 3-month decertificates can also decrease to approximately 16-15%. Therefore, the rate of return on hryvnia deposits can be reduced to an average of 3-4% per annum. However, the most important thing for clients will be the "pure" profit. If We will "override" inflation at least 4-5%, so the number of investors will continue to grow," said Dmytro Zamotaev. 

 For the general (basic) factors that influence the development of deposit investments in 2024, according to the bank, they will be:

1) Dynamics of economic development (growth of GDP, development of small and medium-sized businesses, growth of citizens' income, etc.);

2) Development of exports as an important source of foreign exchange and replenishment of international currency reserves;

3) Scope  the system of international financial support;

 

5) Maximum effectiveness of economic and political decisions.

"In 2024, the development of the banking system will be inextricably linked with the economic processes in the country and the circumstances of the war, which are now almost impossible to take into account. According to official economic forecasts, it is worth counting on further progress of the deposit direction", - summed up Dmytro Zamotaev.