In the first half of 2026, demand for new cars purchased on credit remained steady, though the growth rate in this segment slowed compared to the robust performance of 2025.
This was reported by Serhiy Kiporenko, head of auto lending at GLOBUS BANK.
While last year, according to estimates by banking analysts, the number of new cars purchased on credit rose by 35% to an average of 1,183 vehicles per month, the market shifted from rapid growth to relative stabilization at the start of 2026.
Citing data from “Ukravtoprom,” the expert noted that in January–June 2026, approximately 33,000 new passenger cars were sold in Ukraine—only 0.5% more than during the same period in 2025. At the same time, the National Bank noted that in the first quarter, growth in auto loan and mortgage portfolios slowed, although the total volume of hryvnia-denominated lending to households continued to increase.
According to Serhiy Kiporenko, this trend indicates that buyers are adopting a more cautious approach in light of potential new economic challenges related to both foreign exchange rates and the energy sector—specifically, fuel prices and electricity supply.
“On the one hand, it is entirely logical that after a busy 2025, the market has entered a calmer phase. Demand for new cars purchased on credit has remained steady, but buyers are taking longer to compare financing programs, calculating monthly payments more carefully, and postponing decisions more often due to security and economic uncertainty. In other words, the market hasn’t stopped—it has simply become more pragmatic,” the expert noted.
Interest Rate Cuts Are on Hold
The discount rate remains one of the key factors driving the development of auto lending. During the first half of the year, it stood at 15%, but on July 30, the National Bank raised it to 15.5%.
The regulator attributed this to increased fundamental price pressures and the risk of accelerating inflation. In June, annual inflation slowed to 7.2%, but core inflation rose to 8.1%. According to the NBU’s updated forecast, consumer inflation could reach 10% by the end of 2026.
Thus, the reduction in the discount rate forecast at the beginning of the year has been postponed for now. Accordingly, in the second half of the year, one should not expect a systematic reduction in the cost of traditional auto loans solely as a result of monetary policy.
“At the beginning of the year, the market expected that a gradual decline in inflation would create the conditions for an easing of credit terms. However, the NBU’s July decision changed this scenario. An increase in the discount rate does not mean an automatic and immediate rise in the cost of all auto loans, but it significantly narrows the scope for a general reduction in rates,” explained Serhiy Kiporenko.
According to him, even with favorable inflation trends, a reduction in the cost of auto loans usually occurs with a certain time lag. Banks take into account not only the NBU’s decisions but also the cost of borrowed funds, credit risks, the loan term, the down payment amount, and the terms of their partnership with the dealer.
Currency Fluctuations Have Increased the Hryvnia Value of Cars
Another important factor was currency fluctuations. At the beginning of 2026, the official exchange rate for the dollar was about 42.35 UAH, and as of June 30, it was 44.85 UAH. Thus, over the course of the first half of the year, the dollar appreciated by approximately 5.9%.
The official exchange rate for the euro rose during this period from 49.79 UAH to 51.17 UAH, or by nearly 2.8%.
Since the vast majority of new cars are imported, exchange rate fluctuations gradually affect their hryvnia price. The impact may be delayed, as dealers purchased some of the cars earlier; however, a prolonged weakening of the hryvnia usually leads to price adjustments.
“For the buyer, it’s not just the interest rate that matters, but also the cost of the car itself. Even if the loan terms remain unchanged, an increase in the hryvnia equivalent of the price raises both the down payment and the monthly payment. In this context, a loan can serve to lock in the cost of a specific car at the time the deal is signed,” the expert noted.
At the same time, in his opinion, one should not decide to take out a loan solely based on expectations of further exchange rate increases. The borrower must first and foremost assess their own ability to pay and the total cost of car ownership.
Affiliate programs will remain the main source of more favorable terms
Given the high discount rate, it is precisely the affiliate programs of banks, car dealers, and insurance companies that will remain the key tool for the development of auto lending.
Their advantage lies in the fact that part of the financing cost can be redistributed among program participants. As a result, the buyer can receive a lower nominal interest rate, a discount on the vehicle, or special terms for insurance, maintenance, or trade-in.
Meanwhile, in the National Bank’s July survey, some banks reported an easing of consumer lending standards and expected this trend to continue. At the same time, the financial institutions themselves forecast further growth in public demand for loans.
“In the second half of the year, competition will center not so much on base bank rates as on partnership offers. A bank, a dealer, and an insurance company can jointly create terms that are more attractive than a standard loan. This will be especially true for models that dealers are eager to sell quickly,” says Serhiy Kiporenko.
At the same time, a low advertised interest rate does not always mean the lowest total cost. Buyers should compare the actual annual percentage rate, one-time and monthly fees, the cost of comprehensive auto insurance, life insurance requirements, vehicle appraisal costs, and other related charges.
Financial institutions are required to disclose the actual interest rate and the total cost of the loan, as well as inform the customer about all mandatory additional services.
Ukrainians prefer popular brands, but the demand structure has changed
In the first half of 2026, crossovers and SUVs dominated the overall structure of new car sales, accounting for 80% of the total new passenger car market. In the brand rankings for January–June, the top spots were taken by Toyota, Renault, Škoda, Volkswagen, BYD, Hyundai, BMW, Mazda, Nissan, and Suzuki.
The best-selling model was the Renault Duster crossover from the French brand. The top ten also included the Toyota RAV-4, Hyundai Tucson, Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, Škoda Kodiaq, Mazda CX-5, Volkswagen Touareg, Nissan Qashqai, Škoda Karoq, and Škoda Octavia.
According to Serhiy Kiporenko, this trend reflects buyers’ pragmatic approach: what matters is brand reliability, the availability of service and replacement parts, a predictable residual value, and the ability to quickly sell the car on the used car market.
“For the bank, a car’s liquidity is also important, since the vehicle remains collateral until the loan is fully repaid. Therefore, buyers’ interest in models that are common and well-understood in the market creates a more predictable situation for both the borrower and the lender,” the expert explained.
At the same time, the breakdown of cars by engine type has changed significantly. Gasoline models accounted for 37.8%, hybrids for 32.9%, and diesel models for 20.4%.
In contrast, the share of fully electric cars in new passenger car sales fell from 16.9% to 8.7%.
One of the factors was a change in tax regulations: starting January 1, 2026, the import and sale of electric vehicles will once again be subject to VAT under general rules.
“Following last year’s boom, the electric vehicle segment is undergoing a period of price and tax adjustments. At the same time, the share of hybrids is growing; for many buyers, they have become a compromise between fuel efficiency, sufficient range, and independence from charging infrastructure,” noted Serhiy Kiporenko.
How are energy risks changing the choice between an electric car, a hybrid, and a traditional car?
According to Serhiy Kiporenko, as the fall-winter season approaches, the priorities of buyers of electric vehicles and cars with gasoline and diesel engines may change somewhat. After all, new attacks on the energy sector could cause power outages, while complications in fuel logistics could lead to price hikes or temporary local shortages of fuel. He noted that by 2026, the choice of engine type is increasingly becoming a choice between different risks. An electric vehicle owner depends on the availability of electricity and charging infrastructure, while an owner of a gasoline or diesel car depends on the cost of fuel, the stability of its supply, and the operation of gas stations. Therefore, in his view, there is virtually no option today that is completely independent of external circumstances.
“The energy factor is no longer purely theoretical. In its macroeconomic assessments, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) took into account the consequences of damage to energy infrastructure and a greater electricity shortage, and in its July forecast, it specifically highlighted the inflationary impact of rising fuel prices. Therefore, buyers are reasonably factoring in both scenarios: possible power outages and a further increase in the cost of operating vehicles with internal combustion engines,” he emphasized.
Serhiy Kiporenko noted that for a potential electric car owner, the price of the vehicle and its range are no longer the only key factors. It’s important to understand where exactly the car will be charged: at home, at work, or exclusively at public charging stations. Buyers who have their own parking space with a charging point, access to multiple charging sources, or can plan their trips so as not to depend on a single station will have an advantage. It’s also important to keep in mind that the actual range may decrease in winter, and during prolonged power outages, the load on available charging stations will increase.
At the same time, as the expert emphasized, potential power outages do not mean that interest in electric vehicles will disappear. For daily city trips, especially with home charging available, an electric car can remain cost-effective. However, buyers will increasingly evaluate not the average cost per kilometer, but the reliability of the entire car-ownership model in the event of several days of unstable power supply.
The priorities of gasoline and diesel car buyers are also shifting. Fuel economy, range per tank, the availability of a specific type of fuel, access to service, and the ability to refuel quickly during long trips are coming to the forefront. The price risk here is quite significant: in April 2026, fuel inflation reached 36.1% year-over-year, and in May—38.7%. The National Bank of Ukraine attributed these trends to global oil prices, the cost of previously stockpiled fuel, and external security factors.
“However, even a significant increase in fuel prices will not necessarily lead to a mass shift away from gasoline and diesel vehicles. For buyers who frequently travel between cities, do not have a permanent charging station, or work in regions with an unstable power supply, a traditional engine may remain the more predictable option. The main advantage will not be low operating costs, but the ability to refuel quickly,” he believes.
Against this backdrop, hybrids may become the most balanced choice for some buyers. They allow for reduced fuel consumption in the city but do not create complete dependence on charging infrastructure. That is why, in the first half of the year, the share of hybrid models in new car sales rose from 26.5% to 29.8%. This may indicate that buyers are seeking a compromise between fuel efficiency, driving range, and energy independence.
“In my opinion, this fall and winter, buyers will be evaluating not which type of engine is definitively better, but which car better suits their lifestyle. An electric car might be a good fit for someone with their own charging station who mainly drives in the city. For regular long-distance trips, a long driving range and fast charging may be more important. And for many, a hybrid will serve as a sort of safety net, reducing dependence on both high fuel prices and potential charging issues,” explained Serhiy Kiporenko.
The expert advises calculating at least two usage scenarios for the car before taking out a loan: a normal scenario and a crisis scenario. For an electric car, it’s worth assessing alternative charging locations and the actual winter range. For a gasoline or diesel car, consider the costs in the event of further fuel price increases. For a hybrid, consider the actual savings based on daily routes.
“The type of engine affects not only the cost of the car but also your future family budget. Therefore, when choosing an auto loan, you need to compare the monthly payment along with expenses for fuel or charging, insurance, service, and maintenance. A car should remain financially affordable not only today but also in the face of more challenging fall and winter conditions,” concluded Serhiy Kiporenko.
What Will Happen to the Market in the Second Half of the Year
According to the expert’s baseline forecast, demand for auto loans will remain relatively stable in the second half of 2026. However, a repeat of last year’s 35% growth is currently unlikely.
Restraining factors will include the high discount rate, a possible acceleration of inflation, rising fuel prices, currency fluctuations, and the security situation.
At the same time, the market will be supported by the need of individuals and businesses to renew their vehicle fleets, the development of partnership programs, competition among dealers, and a gradual increase in demand for bank loans.
“The second half of the year is unlikely to be a period of cheap auto loans. However, this does not mean there will be no attractive offers. The best terms will appear on a case-by-case basis—for specific brands, models, loan terms, and down payment amounts. Therefore, buyers should compare not only banks but also entire partnership programs,” predicts Serhiy Kiporenko.
How to Choose the Right Car Loan
Serhiy Kiporenko advises buyers to evaluate a potential loan based on seven key criteria.
First, determine a comfortable down payment. The larger the down payment, the smaller the loan amount and the total overpayment will be. However, after making the down payment, the borrower should still have a financial reserve.
Second, don’t choose the maximum term just to lower your monthly payment. A long-term loan reduces the monthly burden but increases the total cost.
Third, compare the actual interest rate, not the advertised one. Be sure to factor in fees, insurance, collateral appraisal, and other mandatory payments.
Fourth, explore partner programs. A low interest rate may be combined with a discount on a specific model, more favorable comprehensive auto insurance, a service package, or a trade-in offer.
Fifth, check the insurance terms. You should find out the list of accredited insurance companies, the deductible amount, coverage exclusions, and the option to spread out insurance payments, as well as coverage for military risks.
Sixth, consider the total cost of car ownership. In addition to the loan payment, you’ll need to factor in fuel or charging costs, maintenance, tires, parking, insurance, and taxes.
Seventh, clarify the terms of early repayment in advance. The buyer should understand whether they can shorten the term or reduce the amount of the debt without incurring additional fees.
“A comfortable auto loan is one where the borrower clearly understands the total cost, has an affordable monthly payment, and maintains a financial reserve. It is precisely this approach that makes it possible to purchase a car without turning the loan into an excessive burden on the family budget,” concluded Serhiy Kiporenko.
JOINT-STOCK COMPANY “COMMERCIAL BANK ”GLOBUS” (GLOBUS BANK) was founded in 2007.
As of August 2026, its regional network comprises 34 branches, 29 of which are part of the Power Banking network, enabling them to operate during power outages.
GLOBUS BANK has been assigned the highest credit rating on the national scale at uaAAA, as well as a deposit rating of ua2+ on the scale of the “Expert-Rating” rating agency.
The bank’s priority areas of activity include lending for energy-efficient projects, mortgage lending in the primary market, auto loans, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
GLOBUS BANK is an accredited partner of a number of government programs: the state mortgage program “eOselya,” the “5-7-9” preferential lending program for small and medium-sized businesses, “Affordable Factoring,” “Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9,” and “Energy Independence for Individuals—Homeowners.”
The bank is a partner of the State Agency “Energy Efficiency Fund” under the “EnergoDim” and “GreenDim” lending programs for condominium associations and housing cooperatives.
The bank participates in the state program “National Cashback.”
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of the 17 largest Ukrainian banks to sign a Memorandum on financing projects for the restoration of energy infrastructure.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
