The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 upward from 1.3% to 1.8%. Increased budget spending, the localization of arms production, and higher crop yields will contribute to the economic recovery.
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy presented the updated macroeconomic estimates during a briefing on July 30.
According to the regulator’s forecast, economic activity will strengthen in the second half of the year. Additional momentum will come from the allocation of a portion of international funding to arms production in Ukraine, a loosening of fiscal policy, and improved performance in the agricultural sector.
In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP, according to NBU estimates, grew by 0.8% year-over-year. In the first quarter, the economy contracted by 0.6%.
The improvement in economic performance was driven by the stabilization of the power grid, increased budget spending, and reduced uncertainty regarding the flow of international aid.
At the same time, the consequences of Russian attacks on logistics and energy infrastructure, business facilities, and the blockade of ports remain a constraining factor.
Forecast for 2027–2028
In 2027, the National Bank expects economic growth to accelerate to 2.8%. This is expected to be driven by investments in production capacity, stabilization of the energy sector, increased crop yields, and sustained consumer demand.
The NBU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2028 from 3.7% to 3%.
The regulator identifies the continued course of a full-scale war as the main risk to the economy and inflation. Developments in the Middle East could have an additional impact.
Nominal GDP will exceed 10 trillion UAH
The forecast for Ukraine’s nominal GDP in 2026 has been raised from 10.03 trillion UAH to 10.065 trillion UAH.
In 2027, the NBU expects it to increase to 11.22 trillion UAH. The previous forecast was 11.17 trillion UAH.
In 2025, the Ukrainian economy grew by 1.8%. By comparison, growth was 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023. In 2022, real GDP contracted by 28.8%.
Ukraine’s nominal GDP in 2025 was 8.931 trillion UAH.
Government and IMF ForecastsThe International Monetary Fund forecasts that Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 1–1.6% in 2026. Previously, the Fund’s forecast was 1.8–2.5%.
The Cabinet of Ministers has also lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026—from 2.4%, as projected in the state budget, to 1.6%.
Under the government’s optimistic scenario, which assumes the war will end by 2027, the economy could grow by 4.5% next year. Under a more conservative scenario, growth will be 1.3%.
