The Ukrainian mortgage market continued to grow in the first half of 2026, but its development depends almost entirely on the government’s “eOselya” program. Without a revision of the government support model and stronger protection of creditors’ rights, the emergence of a fully-fledged market-based mortgage system remains unlikely.
This was stated by Olena Dmitrieva, First Deputy Chair of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, during the analytical panel “Construction and Real Estate Market Analysis for the First Half of 2026,” organized by the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine.
Housing Demand and Prices
According to her, in the first half of the year, demand for housing was held back by energy terrorism, security risks, and economic uncertainty. At the same time, real estate prices rose significantly due to the weakening of the hryvnia and increased construction costs.
Despite this, the banker asserts that housing purchase terms remain attractive by historical standards: the ratio of an apartment’s price on the secondary market to one year’s rent is approximately ten years. Additionally, there are signs of a revival in supply on the market.
“The real estate market is gradually adapting to wartime conditions, but demand remains highly sensitive to shelling, power outages, and rising construction costs. At the same time, mortgages still account for only about 3% of all residential real estate sales transactions,” noted Olena Dmitrieva.
Mortgage Lending Volumes
According to her data, as of June 1, 2026, the total volume of mortgage loans in the banking system reached 50 billion UAH, or about 4% of all loans issued. Over the past year, banks’ mortgage portfolios have grown by 35%, while the total loan portfolio has increased by approximately 10%.
She also emphasized that approximately 42,000 Ukrainian families currently hold mortgage loans, representing only 0.4% of the total number of households. The share of non-performing loans in the segment stands at 12%, primarily due to older foreign-currency loans.
At the same time, the number of new mortgage loans has not yet returned to pre-war levels. In 2025, banks issued about 77% of the number of loans granted in 2021.
“Mortgage portfolios are indeed growing much faster than the credit market as a whole. However, the main driver of this growth remains the ‘eOselya’ program. Without government support, the scale of mortgage lending would be significantly smaller,” the banker emphasized.
Loans Secured by Property Rights: A New Trend
According to the expert, one of the main trends of 2026 is the rapid increase in the number of loans secured by property rights to apartments in buildings under construction. In the first half of 2026, banks issued 616 more such loans than during the same period in 2025. Consequently, their number rose by 146%, and their share of total mortgage lending increased from 17% to 27%.
In the first five months of 2026, banks issued 279 more loans for the purchase of completed housing directly from developers than during the same period in 2025. In relative terms, the number of such loans rose by 31%. In the secondary market, the increase amounted to 519 loans, or 45%.
On average, banks issue about 207 loans per month secured by property rights to apartments in buildings under construction, and another 238 loans for the purchase of completed housing from developers. Thanks to these two areas of mortgage lending, construction companies receive about 884 million UAH, or approximately $20 million, each month.
“The growth in lending secured by property rights is an important signal for the primary market. Mortgages are increasingly becoming not only a way to purchase housing but also a source of financing for the construction and completion of new residential projects,” explained Olena Dmitrieva.
The “eOselya” Program: Scale and Trends
She also noted that since the launch of the “eOselya” program, approximately 28,000 loans totaling 49 billion UAH have been issued. Currently, the program accounts for 93% of all new mortgage loans in Ukraine.
In addition, the pace of lending is accelerating: in the first half of 2026, 8.4 billion UAH was issued under the program, compared to 5.5 billion UAH during the same period in 2025.
Participating Banks and Market Concentration
The banker noted that ten banks—four state-owned and six commercial—have joined the “eOselya” program. At the same time, state-owned banks issued approximately 80% of the loans under the program.
Overall, only 12 out of 59 banks in Ukraine are currently providing new mortgage loans. At the same time, the market remains extremely concentrated: five institutions issued 93% of all mortgages. Four state-owned banks and eight banks with private Ukrainian capital operate in this segment, while institutions that are part of foreign banking groups do not participate in mortgage programs.
Loan Structure Under the Program
Regarding the loan structure under the “eOselya” program, 28% of the loans were secured by property rights—for the purchase of 1,197 apartments in buildings under construction. Another 35% of loans were used to purchase completed housing directly from developers—a total of 1,534 apartments. Currently, 365 buildings have already been accredited to participate in the program.
Expanding Access for Certain Categories of Citizens
At the same time, the eligibility criteria for “eOselya” are being expanded for certain categories of citizens. In particular, following the introduction of additional compensation for internally displaced persons covering part of the down payment and payments during the first year of the loan, their share among program participants has risen to 20%.
In addition, since December, mobilized military personnel have been able to obtain mortgage loans at 3% per annum. Currently, they account for about 7% of borrowers. Another 31% of program participants are contract military personnel and law enforcement officers.
Another significant change was the increase in the maximum housing area for a two-person household—from 52.5 to 73.5 square meters. These households constitute the largest category of borrowers under the program.
What Is Holding Back the Development of the Market-Based Mortgage Sector
At the same time, despite the expansion of government support, competition in the mortgage market remains low. One of the main reasons for this is the weak protection of creditors’ rights. Recovering delinquent debt is possible primarily through the courts and can take years. In addition, there is a moratorium on the sale of mortgaged property belonging to individuals for loans taken out before the start of the full-scale war.
“Under these circumstances, a bank may be unable to recover the collateral for years and, at the same time, effectively provide interest-free loans to an unscrupulous borrower. Without strengthening creditors’ rights, the development of a fully-fledged market-based mortgage system is unlikely,” emphasized Olena Dmitrieva.
An additional constraint on the further development of the mortgage market is the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) tightening of capital requirements for banks in accordance with European directives. At the same time, financial institutions’ ability to build up capital is hampered by a high tax burden, particularly the 50 percent corporate income tax rate on banks. Under these conditions, the pace of loan portfolio expansion may be limited even in the presence of stable demand for housing.
Outlook: A New Program with the World Bank
At the same time, a mortgage program that “Ukrfinzhytlo” is developing in collaboration with the World Bank could provide a new boost to the market in 2026–2027. It will provide for compensation of up to 20% of the loan amount, interest reimbursement for the first four years, and a minimum down payment of 5–10%. The total funding for the program could amount to $390 million.
It is expected that between 20,000 and 30,000 mortgage loans will be issued under the new model over the course of three years. This could effectively double the current volume of new mortgages, expand the pool of borrowers, and attract more banks to the lending market.
The program is planned to focus primarily on the secondary market, as there will be no restrictions on the age of the property. Meanwhile, “eOselya” will remain the main tool for supporting home purchases in the primary market.
“The new compensation model could make mortgages more accessible to a much wider range of citizens, attract new banks to the market, and increase the overall volume of lending. At the same time, the long-term prospects for mortgages will depend not only on government programs but also on capital requirements for banks and a genuine strengthening of creditor protections,” concluded Olena Dmitrieva.
