In August, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will most likely remain within the range of 44.7–45.7 UAH, while the euro exchange rate will stay within the range of 51–52.50 UAH. Under the baseline scenario, no sharp or uncontrolled exchange rate fluctuations are expected.
Serhiy Mamedov, vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and chairman of the board of GLOBUS BANK, made this statement in a new podcast on the Finance.ua YouTube channel.
According to him, the foreign exchange market in August will largely follow the trends seen in July. At the same time, the exchange rate will be influenced by the security situation, global oil prices, the regularity of international aid, and importer activity.
“August is unlikely to be a month of complete currency ‘calm.’ However, there is currently no reason to expect exchange rate ‘turmoil,’” the banker noted.
He attributed the wider trading range of the euro to the specifics of how its exchange rate is determined. The value of the euro in Ukraine depends not only on the hryvnia’s exchange rate against the dollar but also on the euro-dollar exchange rate on global markets. If the euro-dollar exchange rate remains within the range of 1.14–1.16, the expert believes the Ukrainian euro exchange rate will most likely stay within the projected range.
Serhiy Mamedov cited international financial aid, substantial reserves, and currency interventions by the National Bank as the main stabilizing factors. According to him, this creates a sufficient “safety cushion” for the currency market and enables the NBU to offset situational spikes in demand.
At the same time, he does not rule out that starting in the second half of August, demand from businesses may increase as they prepare for the fall and winter by purchasing energy resources, fuel, and equipment.
“Even if demand from importers temporarily rises, this will not necessarily lead to a prolonged and uncontrolled weakening of the hryvnia. The size of the reserves gives the National Bank sufficient room to maneuver. Under the baseline scenario, the volume of the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions in August could amount to about $3.5–4 billion,” the banker emphasized.
One of the main risks will remain the fuel factor. Ukraine depends on imports of petroleum products, so rising global oil prices increase importers’ demand for foreign currency and intensify pressure on prices.
Seasonal inflationary pressures could be a positive factor. According to the banker’s forecast, inflation in August will remain within a narrow range: from deflation of 0.3% to inflation of about 0.3%.
The security situation may also occasionally boost demand for cash dollars and euros. However, according to the expert, this behavior is often linked not to expectations of devaluation, but to the desire to have an accessible financial reserve “just in case.”
“In August, the market may be emotional but not chaotic. Demand may rise, but it won’t necessarily ‘upset’ the balance. Unless there are major military or external economic shocks, the foreign exchange market has every chance of maintaining relative stability in August,” concluded Serhiy Mamedov.
JOINT-STOCK COMPANY “COMMERCIAL BANK ‘GLOBUS’” (GLOBUS BANK) was founded in 2007.
As of July 2026, its regional network consists of 34 branches, 29 of which are part of the Power Banking network, enabling them to operate during power outages.
GLOBUS BANK has been assigned the highest credit rating on the national scale at uaAAA, as well as a deposit rating of ua2+ on the scale of the “Expert-Rating” rating agency.
The bank’s priority areas of activity include lending for energy-efficient projects, mortgage lending in the primary market, auto loans, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
GLOBUS BANK is an accredited partner of a number of government programs: the “eOselya” state mortgage program; the “5-7-9” preferential lending program for small and medium-sized businesses; “Affordable Factoring”; “Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9”; and “Energy Independence for Individuals—Homeowners.”
The bank is a partner of the State Agency “Energy Efficiency Fund” under the “Energodim” and “GreenDIM” lending programs for condominium associations and housing cooperatives.
The bank participates in the state program “National Cashback.”
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of the 17 largest Ukrainian banks to sign a Memorandum on financing projects for the restoration of energy infrastructure.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
