The retail lending market in Ukraine is showing not only recovery but also structural changes: against the backdrop of active growth in consumer loans, the mortgage segment is developing rapidly, primarily thanks to the state program “єОселя” (eOselya). In 2026, the modernization of this program may become a key factor in the further expansion of the market.
This is stated in an article by the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse.”
Referring to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, analysts noted that as of January 1, 2026, the total retail loan portfolio of the Ukrainian banking system amounted to UAH 365.39 billion, with 97% of the portfolio consisting of loans in the national currency.
“Despite the war and macroeconomic risks, the retail lending market continues to grow,” said Dilara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department at Financial Pulse.
Consumer loans are growing, but their share is decreasing
Analysts emphasized that, according to the NBU, consumer loans traditionally account for the largest share of the portfolio structure. Compared to the beginning of 2025, their volume increased by 25%, and compared to the pre-war period — by 44%.
At the same time, their share in the portfolio is gradually decreasing — from 81% at the beginning of 2022 to 76% as of January 1, 2026.
“This does not indicate a weakening of the segment, but rather the faster growth of other areas of lending, primarily mortgages. The structure of banks’ loan portfolios is becoming more balanced,” the expert explained.
Mortgages are the main driver of structural change
In 2025, the portfolio of loans for real estate purchases increased by 32%, and compared to January 1, 2022, by 2.6 times. The share of mortgages in the retail portfolio grew from 7% to 12%.
“The key factor was the state program ”єОселя” (Home). It actually restarted the mortgage market. In 2026, it will be modernized, which may ensure a new wave of growth in mortgage loans issued,” the expert believes.
In her opinion, mortgages have the greatest long-term multiplier effect on the economy due to their support for the construction industry, related sectors, and domestic demand.
Car loans have returned to pre-war levels
The car loan segment is also showing positive dynamics: in 2025, growth was 37%. At the same time, as of January 1, 2026, the total portfolio is only 5% above the pre-war level. Since the beginning of this year, car loans have accounted for about 5% of banks’ loan portfolios.
“Car lending is gradually recovering along with domestic demand. However, this segment is more sensitive to household income and consumer sentiment,” she noted.
Credit penetration remains low
The analyst drew particular attention to the low level of credit penetration in the economy. According to NBU data cited in the Financial Stability Report for December 2025, the ratio of household loans to GDP is only 0.45% for mortgages and 3% for other retail loans. For comparison, these figures are 44% and 9% in France, 37% and 10% in Germany, and 24% and 7% in the Czech Republic.
Considering the debt burden relative to borrowers’ incomes, the level of credit exposure also remains quite low. As of October 1, 2025, for the vast majority of borrowers (90% in terms of loan portfolio volume and 78% in terms of number of loans), the ratio of monthly payments to income did not exceed 27%, which is a moderate burden.
Referring to NBU data, Dilyara Mustafayeva emphasized that as of October 1, 2025, the largest share of the retail loan portfolio was made up of loans to borrowers with monthly incomes of UAH 20,000 to UAH 50,000 — 31% in terms of volume and 28% in terms of number of loans. For this group, monthly payments averaged 20% of income.
Borrowers with incomes of UAH 12,000 to UAH 20,000 accounted for 15% of the portfolio in terms of volume and 24% in terms of number of loans; their payments amounted to about 27% of income.
Loans to borrowers with incomes above UAH 50,000 accounted for 36% in terms of volume and 11% in terms of number; the monthly debt burden for this group did not exceed 25%.
“The only category with an increased debt burden (about 40% of income) is borrowers with incomes up to UAH 12,000. At the same time, their share in the portfolio is relatively small — 10% of the total volume of loans and 22% of the total number of agreements. Thus, the potential for the development of lending to individuals in Ukraine remains significant,” she said.
Portfolio quality is improving
As of January 1, 2026, the share of non-performing loans to individuals and sole proprietors was 10.78%. Compared to the beginning of 2025, this indicator decreased by 4.71 percentage points, and compared to the pre-war level — by 6.08 percentage points.
“The fact that the quality of the portfolio is improving even during the war is a very strong signal for the market. The banking system remains stable, and risk management is working effectively,” the analyst emphasized.
Outlook for 2026
According to the expert, provided that macrofinancial stability, controlled inflation, and support for government programs are maintained, the retail lending market has all the prerequisites for further growth.
“Given the acceptable level of non-performing loans and the moderate debt burden on the population, the consumer lending market has significant prospects for development. Further active growth in the mortgage segment can be ensured primarily through the modernization of the ‘єОселя’ program,” concluded Dilyara Mustafayeva.
Reference:
The public organization “Center for Economic Research and Forecasting ”Financial Pulse” was established on March 2, 2015, with the aim of uniting the efforts of participants and experts in the Ukrainian financial market for its development and improvement.
The Center’s activities will contribute to the following goals:
Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market, eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development
Increasing the transparency of financial institutions
Developing new market instruments and mechanisms, including through the introduction of best international practices
Improving the financial literacy of the population
Promoting economic reforms, including through financial decentralization
Promoting the development of entrepreneurship, etc.
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