The share of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Ukraine’s banking system continues to decline slowly, despite the war, macroeconomic challenges, and high risks for business. This process is the result of a combination of several systemic factors, ranging from economic stabilization to active work by banks with problem debt.
This was reported by Olena Yermolova, Director of Risk Management and member of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.
She recalled, referring to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, that after a sharp deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios in the first years of the full-scale war, the banking system gradually returned to more stable indicators. While at the beginning of 2022, before the full-scale invasion, the share of non-performing loans was about 26-27%, in 2023 it grew to almost 40% amid a deep economic shock.
However, by 2024-2025, the situation began to stabilize: by the beginning of 2025, the NPL level had fallen to just over 30%. As of January 1, 2026, the banking sector in Ukraine saw a significant reduction in the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) to 14%. Positive dynamics are observed in all market segments. In particular, the NPL ratio fell to less than 20% in state-owned banks, to 8.4% in private banks with Ukrainian capital, and to 6.5% in banks with foreign capital. Thus, the current indicators are the lowest in more than 15 years and indicate a consistent recovery of the banking system and an improvement in the quality of loan portfolios.
“There is a gradual but steady decline in the share of NPL loans in bank portfolios. This is not a quick process, but it has quite understandable economic reasons,” the banker noted.
“Bank portfolios are gradually growing, which automatically reduces the relative share of problem loans,” added the banker.
As Olena Yermolova noted, banks’ active work with non-performing debt plays a separate role: obtaining court decisions, debt collection, including through foreclosure on collateral.
“Recent high-profile cases, such as the situation with the Gulliver shopping center, show that banks continue to systematically clean up their balance sheets,” she said.
In addition, banks continue to write off old problem loans formed before the full-scale war, which also has a positive effect on the overall NPL ratio.
Discount rate and loan quality
The NBU’s discount rate remains a key benchmark for the cost of loans and deposits. In its opinion, the January reduction in the discount rate from 15.5% to 15%, as well as the potential for a further reduction to 13.5-14% by the end of the year, could have a positive impact on borrowers’ ability to service their debts.
“If the reduction in the discount rate is justified by the current economic situation, it leads to cheaper credit funds. This, in turn, facilitates loan servicing,” explained Olena Yermolova.
At the same time, she cautions that even if lending rates are lowered, the effect on existing loans will be limited.
“The possibility of refinancing at a lower rate exists, but it only makes sense if there is a significant difference in lending terms. No radical changes in rates are expected in the near future,” the expert noted.
The “safety formula” for bank lending
According to Olena Yermolova, there is no universal recipe for the ideal loan portfolio, as each bank chooses its own model and strategy.
“The effectiveness of a bank’s lending strategy depends on the quality of management decisions: what data they are based on, how risks are analyzed, and whether the experience of past crises is taken into account. Knowledge, logic, and managerial discipline are also important here,” she emphasized.
At the same time, the expert stressed that no sector of the economy is “automatically safe” or “pre-risky.”
“Lending to construction companies is neither better nor worse than lending to farmers or transporters. If a business is operating and making money, a bank can successfully lend to it, provided that the financial institution is well versed in the specifics of the industry and correctly configures its loan products,” the banker explained.
At the same time, she highlights several basic principles that help minimize the portfolio of problem loans:
deep understanding of the economic, political, and security situation;
systematic analysis of information about the borrower using open sources and credit bureaus;
risk diversification — active development of a system of small loans instead of one large loan;
focus on partnership loan programs between banks and manufacturers/suppliers of key business assets, which are statistically less problematic than loans to replenish working capital.
“A company is unlikely to purchase new equipment or machinery if it is experiencing business difficulties. The very fact of such a loan often indicates that the borrower is doing well and is able to avoid any debt on the loan. Moreover, as a true businessman, they will be as interested as possible in repaying the loan as quickly as possible,” the expert noted.
Forecast for 2026 and advice for borrowers
In 2026, according to the banker, the level of non-performing loans will depend on the duration of the war, the amount of international support, the state of the economy, and the stability of the business environment. The main risks will remain security factors and possible and unpredictable military shocks, in particular problems with energy supplies for most sectors of the economy.
She advises borrowers to act as prudently as possible. Even minor disruptions — poor harvests, equipment breakdowns, or declining demand — can trigger a chain reaction of problems.
“It is very important to stop borrowing in time. The first loan is usually taken consciously and deliberately, but then the ease of access to funds can become an irreparable trap. Interest accrues without pause. And even 5-7-9% under government programs can turn into significant amounts if you are unable to service the loan for several months,” concluded Olena Yermolova.
JOINT STOCK COMPANY “COMMERCIAL BANK ”GLOBUS” (GLOBUS BANK) was founded in 2007.
As of February 2026, the regional network has 34 branches, including 29 that are part of the Power Banking network, which allows them to operate in the absence of electricity.
GLOBUS BANK has been confirmed as having the highest credit rating on the national scale at uaAAA, as well as a deposit rating of ua2+ on the scale of the rating agency Expert-Rating.
The bank’s priority areas of activity are lending to energy-efficient projects, mortgage lending in the primary market, car loans, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
GLOBUS BANK is an accredited partner of a number of state programs: the state mortgage program “eOselya,” the preferential lending program for small and medium-sized businesses “5-7-9,” “Affordable Factoring,” “Affordable Financial Leasing 5-7-9,” “Energy Independence of Individuals – Household Owners.”
The bank is a partner of the State Agency “Energy Efficiency Fund” in the lending programs for condominiums and housing cooperatives ‘Energodim’ and “GreenDim.”
The bank is a participant in the state program “National Cashback.”
On June 25, 2024, GLOBUS BANK became one of 17 largest Ukrainian banks that signed a Memorandum on lending for energy infrastructure restoration projects.
Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
